考虑外部环境变化的分阶段动态群决策方法  

Staged dynamic group decision-making method considering changes in external environment

作　　者：骆华 王应明 梁薇 Luo Hua;Wang Yingming;Liang Wei(School of Economics&Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2021年第6期1748-1752,共5页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61773123)。

摘　　要：研究决策者权重部分未知的概率犹豫模糊分阶段动态群决策问题。针对外部环境的变化,结合符号距离测度,提出考虑外部环境变化的分阶段群决策方法。首先,基于元素的方差及个数差异定义概率犹豫模糊元的犹豫度公式,并在此基础上定义概率犹豫模糊元的符号距离公式。然后,根据外部环境的变化会导致每个时序阶段获得的信息存在差异的特点,构建动态决策模型以确定各个时序阶段的决策者权重,进而分阶段集结信息,形成决策过程方案链。最后,通过算例分析验证了所提出方法的有效性与合理性。This paper studied the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy staged dynamic group decision-making problem with partially unknown weights of decision makers.Aiming at the change of the external environment and combining the symbol distance mea-surement,the paper proposed a phased group decision-making method considering the change of the external environment.Firstly,the method defined the hesitant degree formula of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements based on the variance and number difference of the elements,and defined the symbol distance formula of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements on this basis.Then,according to the characteristics that the change of the external environment would lead to the difference of the information obtained in each timing stage,the method constructed a dynamic decision model to determine the weights of decision makers in each timing stage,and then aggregated the information in stages to form a scheme chain of decision-making process.Finally,an example verified the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method.

关 键 词：群决策 概率犹豫模糊集 符号距离 时序 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]