基于德尔菲统计法的内蒙古现代马繁育体系发展技术路线图研究  

Study on the technology roadmap for the development of modern horsebreeding system based on Delphi method in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：王晓铄[1] 任宏[1] 王勇[1] 艾云辉[1] 赵宇飞[1] 张小宇[1] 呼正祥 王怀栋[1] WANG Xiaoshuo;REN Hong;WANG Yong;AI Yunhui;ZHAO Yufei;ZHANG Xiaoyu;HU Zhengxiang;WANG Huaidong(Vocational of Technical College of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Baotou 014109,China;Bayannur Forestry and Grassland Bureau,Bayannur 015000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学职业技术学院,内蒙古包头014109 [2]巴彦淖尔市林业和草原局,内蒙古巴彦淖尔015000

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2021年第8期8-13,20,共7页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基　　金：内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2020MS03034);内蒙古“软科学”研究计划项目(201705017);内蒙古农业大学人文社科课题(XSK201605;2019QN09)。

摘　　要：近10年来,技术路线图作为一种战略规划预见方法得到了广泛的应用。为促进内蒙古自治区现代特色马产业的发展,建立符合内蒙古自治区实际情况的现代马繁育体系,本研究利用德尔菲统计法、头脑风暴法,结合市场需求要素和产业目标要素关联分析、产业目标要素和技术壁垒要素关联分析数据评价内蒙古现代马繁育体系近期、中期、远期发展需求,最终制订内蒙古现代马繁育体系近期技术路线图。结果表明:在近期(>3~≤5年)繁育体系发展中,排名前3位亟待研发的需求要素分别是“建立现代化优良马匹品种繁育体系”“蒙古马品种得到较好的保护,建立保种场”“评估种公马遗传能力”,说明蒙古马保种以及改良是内蒙古现代特色马产业转型升级的系统工作。鉴于此,提出了建立健全品种登记制度、开展良种马保种工作和大力发展内蒙古现代特色马繁育产业、提高马匹的生产和繁殖性能的对策建议。In the past decade,technology roadmap has been widely used as a strategic planning forecasting method. In order to strengthen thedevelopment of Inner Mongolia characteristic horse industry and establish a modern horse breeding system in line with the reality of Inner Mongolia,in this study,the Delphi method and brainstorming method were used to evaluate the short-term,medium-term and long-term developmentdemands of modern horse breeding system in Inner Mongolia in combination with the correlation analysis data of market demand and industrialtargets,as well as industrial targets and technical barriers,and finally the recent technical roadmap for the development of modern horse breedingsystem in Inner Mongolia was formulated. The results showed that in the development of short-term ( >3~≤5 years) breeding system,thetop three demand factors to be developed were“establishing modern and excellent horse breeding system”“Mongolian horse breeds are betterprotected,establishing a conservation farm”and“assessing the genetic ability of stalks”,these elements would be given priority attention.These results indicates that Mongolian horse preservation and improvement was a systematic work for the transformation and upgrading of moderncharacteristic horse industry in Inner Mongolia. In view of this,countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as establish and perfectthe breed registration system as soon as possible,carry out the work of preserving breeds of horses,and vigorously develop the modern characteristichorse breeding industry in Inner Mongolia to improve the production and breeding performance of horses.

关 键 词：现代马 繁育 技术路线图 德尔菲统计法 市场需求 产业目标 技术壁垒 研发需求 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]