Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources  

作　　者：Xiong-Qi Pang Zhuo-Heng Chen Cheng-Zao Jia En-Ze Wang He-Sheng Shi Zhuo-Ya Wu Tao Hu Ke-Yu Liu Zheng-Fu Zhao Bo Pang Tong Wang 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Resources and Prospecting,Beijing,102249,China [2]College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing,102249,China [3]Geological Survey of Canada,Natural Resources Canada,Calgary,T2L 2A7,Canada [4]China National Oil and Gas Corporation,Beijing,100007,China [5]School of Earth&Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China [6]Shenzhen Branch of China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd,Guangzhou,510240,China [7]CSIRO Earth Science and Resource Engineering,P.O.Box 1130,Bentley,WA,6102,Australia [8]Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,University of Copenhagen,1350,København,Denmark

出　　处：《Petroleum Science》2021年第2期323-338,共16页石油科学（英文版）

基　　金：This research was financially supported by the CAS consultation project(Grant number-2019-ZW11-Z-035);the National Basic Research Program of China(973)(Projects:2006CB202300,2011CB201100);China High-Tech R&D(863)Program Project(2013AA092600);We would like to thank Gao Deli,Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences,for his comments and recommendation in publishing this paper in Petroleum Science.

摘　　要：Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973.At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far,among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources.If drawn in chronological order,the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend,reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time.A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend.The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46×1012 m3 at the year of 2050.The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10%of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir,consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources(TRR)in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches.Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources,only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply.It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.

关 键 词：Natural gas hydrate Global gas hydrate resource Conventional oil and gas resource Renewable and sustainable energy Trend analysis method 

分 类 号：TE37[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]