Risk assessment of corroded casing based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  

作　　者：Sheng-Shan Chen Han-Xiang Wang Hao Jiang Ya-Nan Liu Yan-Xin Liu Xiao-Xiao Lv 

机构地区：[1]College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao,266580,China

出　　处：《Petroleum Science》2021年第2期591-602,共12页石油科学（英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2016ZX05042004);the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.U1762104);the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNPC(Grant No.ZD2019-184-004);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(20CX02306A);the Opening Fund of National Engineering Laboratory of Offshore Geophysical and Exploration Equipment;The authors also would like to express their sincere gratitude to Dr.Zhang Dalei for his assistance in corrosion tests.

摘　　要：Casing corrosion during CO2 injection or storage results in significant economic loss and increased production risks.Therefore,in this paper,a corroded casing risk assessment model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established to identify potential risks in time.First,the corrosion rate and residual strength characteristics are analyzed through corrosion tests and numerical simulations,respectively,to determine the risk factors that may lead to an accident.Then,an index system for corroded casing risk evaluation is established based on six important factors:temperature,CO2 partial pressure,flow velocity,corrosion radius,corrosion depth and wellhead pressure.Subsequently,the index weights are calculated via the analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the risk level of corroded casing is obtained via the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The corroded casing risk assessment model has been verified by a case well,which shows that the model is valuable and feasible.It provides an effective decision-making method for the risk evaluation of corroded casing in CO2 injection well,which is conductive to improve the wellbore operation efficiency.

关 键 词：Corrosion rate Residual strength Analytic hierarchy process Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 

分 类 号：TE983[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]