基于房价预期的城市土地出让及溢价研究  

Urban Land Transfer and Premium Research Based on Housing Price Expectations

作　　者：崔光灿[1] 田露 高雯 CUI Guangcan;TIAN Lu;GAO Wen

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2021年第5期71-76,共6页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2018BJB024):基于"房住不炒"视角的房地产市场参与主体行为分析及长效机制研究。

摘　　要：利用我国主要大中城市的季度交易数据研究了城市土地市场主体行为,发现政府更关心土地收入,土地溢价程度最终取决于开发企业对房价的预期和上期土地溢价的趋势。不同地区的房地产市场发展差异会影响到市场主体的行为,东部城市房地产市场化程度和经济发展水平较高,城市政府对土地财政的依赖性较强,西部城市房地产市场发展相对较慢,房地产企业对土地溢价的追涨现象较弱。在房价预期对土地溢价影响明显的情况下,政府应加快转换职能,稳定市场预期,科学编制经营性用地供应计划,发挥土地市场调控作用,正确引导房地产市场回归理性。Using quarterly transaction data from major large and medium-sized cities in China,we have studied the behavior of urban land market entities and found that the government is more concerned about land income.The degree of land premium ultimately depends on the development companies*expectations of housing prices and the trend of land premiums in the previous period.Differences in the development of the real estate market in different regions will affect the behavior of market entities.The degree of marketization and economic development of real estate in eastern cities is relatively high,and the dependence of urban governments on land finance is relatively strong.The development of real estate markets in western cities is relatively slow.The chasing up of land premiums is weak.When housing price expectations have a significant impact on land premiums,the government should speed up the transformation of functions,stabilize market expectations,scientifically formulate operational land supply plans,play the role of land market regulation,and correctly guide the real estate market to return to rationality.

关 键 词：房价预期 土地出让 土地溢价 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]