小国的“大国平衡外交”形成条件与实施效度研究——以菲律宾的对华对美关系实践为例  

Research on the Conditions and Implementation Efficiency of the“Balancing Diplomacy among Great Powers”by Small States:The Case of the Philippines’Relations with China and the United States

作　　者：王传剑[1] 张松 WANG Chuanjian;ZHANG Song(Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学政治与行政学院,天津300387

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2021年第5期28-41,共14页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国—美国—东盟三边关系互动视阈下南海问题的疏解路径与管控方略研究”(16AGJ008)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在国际问题研究当中,探讨小国的“大国平衡外交”机理具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。小国的“大国平衡外交”有其基本的形成条件,而其实施效度则是“主导因素”与“加成因素”共同作用的结果,并在客观上表现为“对称平衡”与“非对称平衡”的交替转换和波动变化。当前杜特尔特政府所施行的“中美平衡外交”基本上处于一种“对称平衡”的状态,但从菲律宾的对华对美关系实践特别是其“平衡外交”的运行规律来看,又极有可能会朝“非对称平衡”的方向发展,甚至不排除其“平衡外交”政策在特定情势之下发生根本性逆转的可能性。In the study of international relations,it has theoretical and practical significance to explore the mechanism of the“balancing diplomacy among great powers”by small states.This“balancing diplomacy”by small countries has several necessary conditions,and its implementation effectiveness is a function of the combined effects of“dominant factors”and“additive factors”.This is objectively manifested as alternate conversions and fluctuations between“symmetrical balancing”and“asymmetrical balancing”.The current balancing diplomacy between China and the United States as pursued by the Duterte administration is basically in a state of“symmetrical balancing”.However,from the perspective of the Philippines’practice of its relations with China and the United States,especially based on its development law of“balancing diplomacy”,it is very likely that it will develop in the direction of“asymmetrical balancing”.It does not rule out the possibility that the“balancing diplomacy”would be fundamentally reversed under certain circumstances.

关 键 词：大国平衡外交 对称平衡 非对称平衡 中菲关系 美菲关系 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]