美国的中亚政策:基于猎鹿博弈视角的分析  

US'Central Asia Policy:An Analysis from the Perspective of the Stag Hunt Game

作　　者：肖斌[1] Xiao Bin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2021年第3期47-66,共20页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所创新工程项目《欧亚地区战略态势(2019—2021)》阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近30年来,美国与中亚国家基本保持了平稳发展的关系,这得益于美国的中亚政策。作为全球性大国,美国中亚政策引起了诸多学者的研究兴趣,取得了很多开拓性研究成果,促进了美国中亚政策研究的发展。但是,既有研究中的“埃尔斯伯格悖论”较为普遍,降低了研究结论的信度。借助猎鹿博弈可以发现,风险和互利是影响美国中亚政策的关键性要素,中亚国家的合作意愿和大国关系的性质(对抗、竞争、合作)则是推动关键性要素变化的核心力量。受中美俄三国竞争关系的影响,在美国中亚政策时间维度中,绝大部分时间都处于风险占优的状态。因此,美国的中亚政策更倾向于选择猎兔策略,在中亚地区维护美国的战略利益,即打击恐怖主义,确保美国的国家安全;支持中亚国家的独立性,减少中亚国家对中国和俄罗斯的过度依赖,寻求美国在中亚地区的支配性权力。In the past 30 years,benefited from US'Central Asia policy,the US and Central Asian countries have basically maintained a stable relationship.The US is a global power,so its Central Asia policy has aroused great research interest of many scholars and brought out many pioneering research results.But the"Ellsberg Paradox"in current research is quite common,thereby reducing the reliability of the research conclusions.From the perspective of the Stag hunt gfme,it can be found that risks and mutual benefits,which mainly depend upon willingness of Central Asian countries to cooperate and the relationship between major powers(confrontation,competition and cooperation)are the key factors for US'Central Asian policy.Affected by the competition between China,the US and Russia,the US is normally in risk dominance and its Central Asia policy is more inclined to the rabbit hunting strategy,which aims at safeguarding US'strategic interest including combating terrorism and ensuring its national security,supporting the independence of Central Asian countries,reducing their dependence on China and Russia and seeking for dominant power in this region.

关 键 词：美国中亚政策 中国 俄罗斯 猎鹿博弈 风险与互利 

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