基于组合模型的安徽省能源消费预测及对策  

Forecast and Countermeasures of Energy Consumption in Anhui Province Based on Combined Model

作　　者：陈芳[1] 张书勤 刘松涛 胡槐生[2] 张翔 CHENFang;ZHANG Shu-qin;LIU Song-tao;HU Huai-sheng;ZHANG Xiang(Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China;Anhui Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hefei Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]安徽省电力设计院有限公司,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2021年第2期9-15,共7页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：中国能源建设集团安徽省电力设计院有限公司2019招标课题“安徽省‘十四五’能源消费总量预测”(20191115);安徽省生态与经济发展研究中心项目“长三角绿色发展不平衡测度及协同机制研究”(AHST2019003)。

摘　　要：能源是保障经济平稳运行和提高人民生活水平的关键维度。为科学预测安徽省能源消费量,分别利用单项预测模型和组合预测模型预测能源消费总量,并对细分能源消费量进行预测,最后基于情景分析法对长三角一体化推动下安徽省能源消费形势进行研判。结果表明:无论是单项模型预测还是组合预测,2019年至2025年安徽省能源消费均呈上升趋势,但增速有所放缓。煤炭类能源消费量增加但增速放缓,成品油类能源消费量明显减少,清洁能源消费量加速增长,长三角一体化推动下安徽省能源消费需求呈扩大趋势。准确预测安徽省能源消费量,有助于政府制定合理的能源开发和利用政策。Energy is a key dimension to ensure the smooth operation of the economy and improve people’s living standards.In order to scientifically predict the energy consumption of Anhui Province,the single forecasting model and the combined forecasting model are used to predict the total energy consumption.On this basis,the subdivided energy consumption of Anhui is predicted.Finally,based on the scenario analysis method,the integration of the Yangtze River Delta Research and judge the energy consumption situation of the province.The results show that whether it is a single model forecast or a combination forecast,the energy consumption of Anhui Province is on the rise from 2019 to 2025,but the growth rate has slowed down.Coal-based energy consumption has increased but the growth rate has slowed down,refined oil-based energy consumption has decreased significantly,and clean energy consumption has accelerated.Under the background of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta,the demand for energy consumption in Anhui Province is expanding.Accurately predicting the energy consumption of Anhui Province will help the government formulate reasonable energy development and utilization policies.

关 键 词：能源消费 组合预测 情景分析 长三角一体化 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]