基于订单取消量可预测的制造商原材料库存优化研究  

Research on Material Inventory Optimization of Manufacturers under Order Cancellations Predictable

作　　者：陈光会[1] 王瑞亭 苏兵[1] 李会聪 CHEN Guang-hui;WANG Rui-ting;SU Bing;LI Hui-cong(School of Economics and Management, Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an 710021, China)

机构地区：[1]西安工业大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710021

出　　处：《预测》2021年第3期69-75,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL275);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(18YJAZH080);陕西省重点研发计划资助项目(2018SF-399)。

摘　　要：本文针对已支付定金客户取消订单的情形,提出根据历史订单量和实际交易量利用线性回归模型来预测订单取消量。在此基础上,本文构建了以库存总成本最小为目标的订单取消量可预测的制造商原材料库存优化模型,然后设计了时间复杂度为O(np)的近似算法GA求解模型(其中n为原材料的种类数,p为预测订单取消量的时段数),并分析了算法GA的近似比。最后选取XAHL有限公司的库存数据进行实例分析,验证了模型和算法的有效性,根据模型计算结果给出公司原材料采购和库存优化策略。本文旨在为制造商进行原材料采购及库存决策提供理论依据。For the practical case that customers orders may cancel who have paid down deposit,the paper proposes to predict order cancellations based on linear regression model according to historical orders and actual transactions.Then the material inventory optimization model under order cancellations predicted with the objective of minimizing total inventory costs is established,and approximate algorithm GA with time complexity O(np)to solve the problem is designed(Where n denote categories of materials,p denote phases of order cancellation),and the approximate ratio of GA is analyzed.Finally,take inventory data of XAHL Co.,Ltd.as an example to conform effectiveness of the model and algorithm,which help to optimize inventory strategies and material purchasing of XAHL Co.,Ltd..All the conclusions are aim to provide theoretical basis for all material purchasing and inventory decision-makers of manufacturers.

关 键 词：预测 订单取消量 原材料库存 线性回归 近似算法 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]