An Initialization Scheme for Weak Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea  

作　　者：Jihang LI Qilin WAN Daosheng XU Yanyan HUANG Xubin ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2021年第2期358-370,共13页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1507602);Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2017B020244002 and 2018B020208004);Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515011118);National Natural Science Foundation of China (41705089)。

摘　　要：Variations in the initial structure of tropical cyclones(TCs) inevitably affect prediction results;however, the bogus model cannot accurately describe the structure of a weak tropical cyclone with increased initial field resolution. This study aims to construct a model to improve the prediction of weak TC in southern China. Based on the ECMWF 0.1° analysis data, several vortices were filtered out from tropical depressions and tropical storms in 2018 and 2019 to represent a weak TC reservoir in the South China Sea. For different simulation objects, filtered vortices were combined with the TC environmental field to form ensemble members. The observed TC information was assimilated for simulating TCs Bebinca, Mun, and Ewiniar to verify the feasibility of the proposed model, based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES) 9-km model developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology. The results show that the initialization scheme of the weak tropical cyclone model improved the intensity prediction of the TC by 26.81%(Bebinca), 18.65%(Mun), and 47.00%(Ewiniar), compared with the control experiment. Because typhoon intensity forecasting has not notably improved for many years, this scheme has certain scientific and operational significance.

关 键 词：tropical cyclones(TCs) intensity forecast initialization scheme for weak TC 

分 类 号：P732.3[天文地球—海洋科学]