服务业集聚促进了中心城市的人口扩散吗  

Does the Agglomeration of Service Industries Contribute to the Diffusion of Population in Central Cities?

作　　者：郝浩宇 任栋[2,3,4] 刘梦珣 Hao Haoyu;Ren Dong;Liu Mengxun

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院 [2]山东省宏观经济研究院社会发展所 [3]泰华智慧产业集团博士后工作站 [4]山东大学博士后科研流动站 [5]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2021年第4期94-112,共19页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY106);山东省社会科学规划研究重点项目(20BZZJ02);济南市哲学社会科学规划重点项目(JNSK19B04)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以都市圈人口均衡发展为研究对象,基于2001—2018年全国28个中心城市及周边城市样本,以经济发展水平为门槛变量构建门槛面板模型,重点检验中心城市服务业集聚对都市圈人口均衡分布的影响效应及变化趋势,并分别进行了稳健性检验和异质性分析。检验结果表明:中心城市服务业集聚发展对都市圈人口分布整体呈现较为显著的扩散效应,但两者存在双重门槛效应的非线性关系,人均GDP的门槛值分别为34441元和73350元;随着中心城市经济发展水平的提升,中心城市服务业集聚对都市圈人口分布的扩散效应逐渐弱化,集聚效应日趋凸显;通过多维度的异质性分析发现,东南部沿海发达地区中心城市具有更加显著的人口集聚效应,经济发展水平相对偏低的中西部、北方等地区中心城市则主要表现为扩散效应,但均呈现出集聚效应逐步增强态势。据此建议:根据都市圈不同阶段的发展特征,制定差异化区域一体化发展政策,有效统筹中心城市在区域一体化发展中的集聚效应和扩散效应,促进都市圈一体化均衡发展。This paper has a balanced development of urban circles into research objects.Based on 28 central cities in 2001—2018,this paper is based on the national economic development level,which is a threshold variable,and the key inspection center city service industry set is gathered.The impact of distribution and trend of changes,and performing robustness testing and heterogeneity.The test results show that the central urban service industry agglomeration development has a more prominent diffusion effect on the population distribution of the capital circle,but there is a nonlinear relationship between the two threshold effects.The threshold value of the per capita GDP is 34441 yuan and 73350 yuan;the level of economic development in the central city has gradually weakened the diffusion effect of the population distribution of the urban service industry,and the agglomeration effect is increasing;the multidimensional heterogeneity analysis reveals that the central cities in the developed coastal areas in the southeast have a more significant population agglomeration effect,while the central cities in the central and western regions and the northern regions with relatively low economic development levels mainly show a diffusion effect,but all show a gradually increasing agglomeration effect.Accordingly,it is recommended that:according to the development characteristics of metropolitan areas at different stages,differentiated regional integrated development policies should be formulated to effectively coordinate the agglomeration effect and diffusion effect of central cities in regional integrated development and promote the balanced development of metropolitan area integration.

关 键 词：中心城市 服务业 门槛模型 人口效应 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F719