应用移动平均法的季节趋势模型对南京地区蚊虫密度的预测预警研究  

Forecasting and early warning of mosquito density in Nanjing by using the seasonal trend model of moving average

作　　者：孙燕群[1,2] 孙红敏 张守刚 马涛[1] 丰罗菊[1] 王冲[1] 陆墨原[1,3] 张艳 汪君君 吴起新 李成国[1] Sun Yanqun;Sun Hongmin;Zhang Shougang;Ma Tao;Feng Luoju;Wang Chong;Lu Moyuan;Zhang Yan;Wang Junjun;Wu Q ixin;Li Chengguo(Department Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,The Affiliated Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210003,China;State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity,Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology,Beijing 100071;School of Public Health,Soueast University,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心,南京医科大学附属南京疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京210003 [2]军事科学院军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所,病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室,北京100071 [3]东南大学公共卫生学院,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《中华卫生应急电子杂志》2021年第1期13-17,共5页Chinese Journal of Hygiene Rescue(Electronic Edition)

基　　金：南京市卫生科技发展专项资金(YKK17200,YKK18178);南京市第十周期医学重点专科(传染病预防控制)。

摘　　要：目的应用移动平均法季节趋势模型对2019蚊虫密度进行预测预警研究,指导蚊媒病和蚊虫防制工作。方法采用Excel软件对南京地区2015年至2018年半月次蚊虫密度在回归方程的基础上进行季节趋势拟合,对2019年蚊虫密度进行预测。结果拟合后的回归方程为:y=0.0091x+0.5207,模型相对误差为-0.04%。结论2019年第9个半月次至21个半月次(即从4月下旬至10月下旬)实测值和预测值较接近,均低于警戒值,模型拟合效果较好,该方法对于地区爱国卫生运动政策的制定和蚊媒病的防制具有指导意义。Objective To predict the mosquito density in 2019 by using the seasonal trend model of the moving average method based on the mosquito density in Nanjing from 2015 to 2018 to guide mosquito-borne diseases and mosquito control.Methods Excel software was used to fit the seasonal trend of the mosquito density in Nanjing during the first half of 2015-2018 on the basis of the regression equation to predict the mosquito density in 2019.Results The regression equation after fitting was:y=0.0091 x+0.5207,and the relative error of the model was-0.04%.Conclusion In the 9 th and 21 st half months of 2019(that is,from late April to late October),the measured and predicted values are close to each other,and both are lower than the warning value.The model fitting effect is better.This method has guiding significance for the formulation of patriotic health campaign policies and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.

关 键 词：蚊虫密度 移动平均法 季节趋势模型 预测预警 

分 类 号：R184.31[医药卫生—流行病学]