中国北极村寒冷环境变化分析  

Analysis of Cold Environment Changes in Arctic Village in China

作　　者：国世友 李兴权[1,2] 王申义 GUO Shiyou;LI Xingquan;WANG Shenyi(Academician Workstation of Heilongjiang Longyun Meteorological Information Technology Co.,Ltd.;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省龙云气象科技有限责任公司气象院士工作站 [2]黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中国资源综合利用》2021年第5期106-108,124,共4页China Resources Comprehensive Utilization

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2018-023);黑龙江省龙云气象科技有限责任公司气象院士工作站项目(YSMS202005)。

摘　　要：基于北极村和CMIP6模式冬季气温、逐日最低气温资料,本文采用多种统计方法,分析了北极村1957-2019年寒冷环境变化,预估2020-2099年寒冷环境情景。结果表明,1957-2019年北极村冬季增暖速率为0.549℃/10 a,寒冷日数减少速率为-2.75 d/10 a,这种变暖从20世纪70年代末期开始,一直持续到现在,2010-2019年增暖最明显。经预估,2020-2099年北极村冬季气温、寒冷日数维持升高、减少趋势,变化速率分别为0.416℃/10 a、-0.601 d/10 a;与1957-2019年相比,21世纪90年代,冬季气温约升高4℃,寒冷日数约偏少30 d。预估结果可以为制定冷资源利用规划提供科学基础。Based on the winter temperature and daily minimum temperature data of the Arctic Village and the CMIP6 model,this paper uses a variety of statistical methods to analyze the changes in the cold environment of Arctic Village from 1957 to 2019,and predicts the cold environment scenarios from 2020 to 2099.The results show that the winter warming rate of Arctic Village from 1957 to 2019 is 0.549℃/10 a,and the decreasing rate of cold days is-2.75 d/10 a,this kind of warming began in the late 1970s and has continued to the present,with the most significant warming in 2010-2019.It is estimated that the winter temperature and the number of cold days in Arctic Village will maintain increasing and decreasing trends from 2020 to 2099,and the rate of change will be 0.416℃/10 a and-0.601 d/10 a,respectively;compared with 1957-2019,in the 2090s,the winter temperature will increase by about 4℃,and the number of cold days is about 30 days less.The estimated results can provide a scientific basis for making cold resource utilization plans.

关 键 词：北极村 寒冷 预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]