基于结构方程模型的中美技术扩散效应测度  

Measurement of the Effect of Technology Diffusion Between China and America Based on Structural Equation Model

作　　者：顾六宝[1] 王俊霞[1,2] GU Liubao;WANG Junxia(College of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding,Hebei 071002;School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《河北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第3期73-85,共13页Journal of Hebei University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于研发资本化的我国经济发展方式评级及新动能测度研究”(18ATJ002);国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国制造业技术创新扩散的统计测度研究”(17BTJ016)。

摘　　要：由于发达国家与发展中国家存在技术差距,发达国家的先进技术在经济交往中会通过多种渠道向发展中国家扩散。通过收集2007—2017年的省际面板数据,建立递归模型和非递归模型,运用偏最小二乘法(PLS),对美国向中国的技术扩散效应进行测度。研究结果表明,中美技术差距指标对于中国技术进步的促进作用并不明显,而中美之间的进出口贸易、FDI对于中国的技术进步起促进作用,此外中国的政府政策、经济环境、基础设施等因素影响着中美之间技术扩散,与中国的技术进步呈正相关关系。通过递归模型与非递归模型实证结果的对比分析,表明模型考虑自变量之间的相互影响与否对模型的实证结果有一定影响,但影响不是太大。Due to the technology gap between developed countries and developing countries,the advanced technology will spread from developed countries to developing countries through various channels during economic exchanges.Based on the collection of provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017,this paper establishes a recursive model and a non-recursive model,and uses Partial Least Squares(PLS)method to measure the effect of technology diffusion from the United States to China.The results show that the indicator for technology gap between China and America doesn't promote technological progress,while the international trade,FDI between China and the United States promote China's technological progress.In addition,Chinese government policy,economic environment,infrastructure,and so on,affect the technology diffusion between China and the US,and are positively correlated with China's technological progress.By the comparative analysis of the empirical results of the recursive model and the non-recursive model,it shows that whether the model considers the mutual influence between independent variables has a certain influence on the empirical results of the model,but the degree of influence is not too much.

关 键 词：技术扩散效应 结构方程模型 路径分析 

分 类 号：F752.67[经济管理—国际贸易]