Enhancement of the polynomial functions response surface model for real-time analyzing ozone sensitivity  

作　　者：Jiangbo Jin Yun Zhu Jicheng Jang Shuxiao Wang Jia Xing Pen-Chi Chiang Shaojia Fan Shicheng Long 

机构地区：[1]Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control,College of Environment and Energy,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center,Guangzhou 510006,China [2]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China [3]State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [4]Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering,Taiwan University,Taipei 10673,China [5]Carbon Cycle Research Center,Taiwan University,Taipei 10672,China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2021年第2期155-168,共14页环境科学与工程前沿（英文）

基　　金：supported by the Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou,China(No.202002030188);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0207606);US EPA Emission,Air quality,and Meteorological Modeling Support(No.EP-D-12-044);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.21625701),the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.D2160320,D6180330,and D2170150);the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(No.2017A030310279).

摘　　要：Quantification of the nonlinearities between ambient ozone(O3)and the emissions of nitrogen oxides(NOx)and volatile organic compound(VOC)is a prerequisite for an effective O3 control strategy.An Enhanced polynomial functions Response Surface Model(Epf-RSM)with the capability to analyze O3-NOx-VOC sensitivities in real time was developed by integrating the hill-climbing adaptive method into the optimized Extended Response Surface Model(ERSM)system.The Epf-RSM could single out the best suited polynomial function for each grid cell to quantify the responses of O3 concentrations to precursor emission changes.Several comparisons between Epf-RSM and pf-ERSM(polynomial functions based ERSM)were performed using out-of-sample validation,together with comparisons of the spatial distribution and the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach diagrams.The comparison results showed that Epf-RSM effectively addressed the drawbacks of pf-ERSM with respect to overfitting in the margin areas and high biases in the transition areas.The O3 concentrations predicted by Epf-RSM agreed well with Community Multi-scale Air Quality simulation results.The case study results in the Pearl River Delta and the north-western area of the Shandong province indicated that the O3 formations in the central areas of both the regions were more sensitive to anthropogenic VOC in January,April,and October,while more NOx-sensitive in July.

关 键 词：Response surface model Hill-climbing algorithm Ozone pollution Precursor emissions Control strategy 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]