长江三角洲区域农业碳补偿率空间效应与影响因素研究  

Research on Spatial Effect and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Offset Rate in Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：张颂心[1] 徐如浓[2] 黄靖 ZHANG Songxin;XU Runong;HUANG Jing(Capital Trade College,Taizhou Vocational and Technical College,Taizhou Zhejiang 318000,China;International Business School,Zhejiang Yuexiu University of Foreign Languages,Shaoxing Zhejiang 312000,China;School of Public Administration,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin Heilongjiang 150006,China)

机构地区：[1]台州职业技术学院经贸学院,浙江台州318000 [2]浙江越秀外国语学院国际商学院,浙江绍兴312000 [3]哈尔滨工业大学公共管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第6期58-65,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：浙江省社会科学规划项目“乡村振兴与绿色发展双重驱动下农业面源污染的趋势研判、政策评估与对策研究”(19NDJC393YBM);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“绿色转型视角下低碳农业发展研究:生产效率、空间差异与影响因素”(18YJCZH245)。

摘　　要：基于长江三角洲区域27个市域面板数据,测算2006—2018年各市农业碳补偿率,并在利用Moran’s I研究碳补偿率空间分布情况基础上,构建Durbin空间模型分析探讨空间溢出效应与影响因素。研究发现:(1)长江三角洲区域农业碳补偿率具有区域集聚特征,最高值分布逐步由西翼转变为东西两翼,较高值主要位于南部浙江省和西部安徽省,较低值主要分布靠北的上海市和江苏省。(2)区域间农业碳吸收水平呈相互促进、协同提升演变特征,正向溢出效应较为明显,邻近地区农业碳补偿率每提高1%,则本地农业碳补偿率相应上升0.441%,但随时间的推移,邻近地区彼此关联度逐渐有所减弱(3)绿化程度、种植业优化结构的固碳作用最明显,而化肥强度、农药强度和畜禽养殖优化结构是农业碳补偿率提升最重要抑制要素。建议长三角洲区域各市加强协同联动,调节控制关键因素,针对性探索多元减排增汇举措。Based on the panel data of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta,the agricultural carbon compensation rate of each city in 2006-2018 is calculated.After studying the spatial distribution of carbon compensation rate by Moran index,the Durbin spatial model is constructed to analyze the spatial spillover effect and influencing factors.The results show that:(1)The regional agricultural carbon compensation rate of the Yangtze River Delta has the characteristics of regional agglomeration,the highest value distribution gradually changes from the west wing to the East and west wing,the higher value is mainly located in southern Zhejiang Province and Western Anhui Province,and the lower value is mainly distributed in the north of Shanghai and Jiangsu Province.(2)The level of agricultural carbon absorption shows the characteristics of mutual promotion and collaborative improvement.The positive spillover effect is more obvious.For every 1%increase in the agricultural carbon compensation rate in the adjacent areas,the local agricultural carbon compensation rate increases by 0.441%,but with the passage of time,the correlation between the adjacent areas gradually weakens.(3)The most obvious carbon fixation effect is the greening degree and the optimal structure of the planting industry,while the chemical fertilizer Intensity,pesticide intensity and optimal structure of livestock and poultry breeding are the most important factors to restrain the increase of agricultural carbon compensation rate.It is suggested that all cities in the Yangtze River Delta should strengthen coordination and linkage,adjust and control key factors,and explore multiple measures to reduce emissions and increase foreign exchange.

关 键 词：长江三角洲区域 莫兰指数 碳补偿率 碳补偿率空间分布 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] F062.2