近50年来大连市城市气候变化分析  

Analysis of Dalian City Climate Change in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：金梓昕 JIN Zixin(Liaoning Normal University,Liaoning Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2021年第4期16-21,共6页Territory & Natural Resources Study

摘　　要：气候和人类的生活息息相关,现如今,全球的气候变化问题已成为人们关注的热点问题,国内外的学者对全球气候变化有不同的看法。本文采用线性回归分析和Pettitt突变分析方法分析了大连市近50年来的气温变化特征和降水量的变化规律,根据大连市3个气象站点1964-2013年年平均气温和降水量数据资料进行分析,研究表明,气温方面,近50年来大连市气温总体呈上升趋势,1964-1987年为相对冷期,1988-2013年为相对暖期,气温在1987年发生突变,突变后较突变前平均气温增加了8.13%。降水方面,多年降水量整体呈现上升趋势但不明显,总体平稳但年际波动较大,阶段性干湿特征不显著,并未发生突变现象。Climate and human life,nowadays,global climate change has become a hot issue,domestic and foreign scholars have different views on global climate change.This paper adopts linear regression analysis and Pettitt mutation analysis method analyzed the change rule of Dalian City in the past 50 years the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation of 3 meteorological stations from 1964 to 2013,the annual mean temperature and precipitation data of Dalian City,according to the analysis,research shows that,in terms of temperature,the temperature in Dalian has shown an overall upward trend in recent 50 years.It was a relatively cold period from 1964 to 1987,a relatively warm period from 1988 to 2013,and the temperature suddenly changed in 1987,compared with the average temperature before mutation mutation increased 8.13%.The overall precipitation,the precipitation increased but not obvious,but the overall stableinterannual fluctuations,dry and wet stage characteristics is not obvious,not mutatedphenomenon.

关 键 词：大连市 气温 降水量 线性回归分析法 Pettitt突变分析方法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]