甘肃省白银市蔬菜价格波动及其影响因素——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Vegetable Price Fluctuation and Its Influencing Factors in Baiyin City,Gansu Province——Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：王明乐 侯庆丰 WANG Mingle;HOU Qingfeng(School of Management,Gansu Agricultural University,Gansu Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2021年第4期82-86,共5页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY133)。

摘　　要：白银市作为甘肃省全季节蔬菜生产的重要生产地,蔬菜价格波动与当地居民生活和经济发展密切相关。文章从白银市蔬菜价格波动现状出发,研究3种主要蔬菜的波动特征,同时运用VAR模型,通过平稳性检验、协整分析、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对影响白银市蔬菜价格波动的因素进行实证研究。结果表明,三种蔬菜月度价格波动规律呈现“U”型结构,具体表现为“一峰一谷”季节性波动特征;城镇居民人均可支配收入、蔬菜产量和农业生产资料价格是影响白银市蔬菜价格波动的主要因素,同时提出稳定白银市蔬菜价格波动的对策建议。As an important production place of vegetable production in Gansu Province,the price fluctuation of vegetables is closely related to the life and economic development of local residents.Based on the current situation of vegetable price fluctuation in silver market,this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of 3 main vegetables,and uses VAR model to empirically study the factors affecting vegetable price fluctuation in silver market through smoothness test,co-total analysis,pulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show that the monthly price fluctuation law of three kinds of vegetables presents the"U"structure,which is characterized by seasonal fluctuation of"one peak and one valley",and the per capita disposable income,vegetable yield and agricultural production data price of urban residents are the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of vegetables in silver market,and put forward some suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of vegetables in silver market.

关 键 词：蔬菜价格 影响因素 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]