2012-2019年上海市金山卫镇手足口病流行特征分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction on epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jinshanwei Town,Shanghai from 2012 to 2019

作　　者：江会运 董兆鹏 陈聪 孙箐爽 宋灿磊 徐艳鸽 JIANG Hui-yun;DONG Zhao-peng;CHEN Cong;SUN Jing-shuang;SONG Can-lei;XU Yan-ge(Jinshanwei Town Community Health Service Center,Jinshan District,Shanghai201512,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]上海市金山区金山卫镇社区卫生服务中心,上海201512 [2]上海市金山区疾病预防控制中心 [3]复旦大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2021年第4期344-347,351,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：上海市卫生计生委科研课题(20184Y0023)。

摘　　要：目的了解2012-2019年上海市金山卫镇手足口病流行的基本特征,预测2020年金山卫镇手足口病的发病趋势,为有效防治手足口病提供参考。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析金山卫镇手足口病流行特征,通过时间序列分析方法建立求和自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测2020年1-12月手足口病的发病数。结果2012-2019年金山卫镇手足口病共报告病例1649例,重症9例,死亡2例,年均发病率为242.79/10万,重症率为0.55%,病死率为0.12%。发病呈双峰趋势,发病主高峰为5-7月,次高峰为9-11月。高发年龄为5岁以下儿童,占87.93%,3岁以下儿童居多,占70.22%,男性较女性发病率高,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=57.300,P<0.01),主要发病人群为散居儿童、幼托儿童(分别占60.58%、31.41%)。ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)模型的预测值与实际值吻合度较高,平均相对误差为0.98%,预测2020年金山卫镇手足口病发病数为267例。结论金山卫镇手足口病的发病具有明显的季节和人群分布特征,可利用ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)模型进行有效预测,从而采取关口前移的预防控制措施。Objective To understand basic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)epidemic in Jinshanwei Town,Shanghai from 2012 to 2019,to predict the incidence trend of HFMD in Jinshanwei Town in 2020,and to provide references for effective prevention and treatment of HFMD.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Jinshanwei Town,and the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was established to predict the atacked cases of HFMD from January to December 2020 through time series analysis.Results A total of 1649 cases of HFMD were reported in Jinshanwei Town from 2012 to 2019,including 9 severe cases and 2 cases of deaths.The average annual incidence rate was 242.79/100000,the rate of severe cases was 0.55%,and the case fatality rate hit 0.12%.The incidence showed a bimodal trend,the major peak of incidence was extended May to July,and the minor peak started from September to November.The children at the age of 5 years old(87.93%)were found to have high incidence,and most of sufferers were children under 3 years old(70.22%).Male patients have a higher incidence rate than females,and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=57.300,P<0.01).The main affected populations were scattered children and children in kindergartens(60.58%and 31.41%respectively).The predicted value of the ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12) model showed goodness of fit with actual value,average relative error was 0.98%,and the number of HFMD cases in Jinshanwei Town in 2020 was predicted to be 267.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Jinshanwei Town is featured with obvious seasonal and population distribution characteristics.ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12) model can be used to predict effectively the incidence of HFMD to prevent and control measures by moving key access in advance.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 手足口病 预测 流行特征 防控 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]