全球LNG贸易定价演变规律与新趋势及相关启示  

Evolution laws and new trends of global LNG pricing and their implications

作　　者：陈蕊 祁鹏飞 张晓宇 李春霞 CHEN Rui;QI Pengfei;ZHANG Xiaoyu;LI Chunxia(CNPC Economic&Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724,China;China National Offshore Oil Corporation,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油经济技术研究院天然气市场研究所 [2]中国石油经济技术研究院 [3]中国海洋石油集团有限公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2021年第5期144-152,共9页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：天然气对保障我国能源安全、实现2060年“碳中和”意义重大,但是进口LNG定价话语权缺失和高资源成本却给我国天然气稳定供应带来了挑战。为了降低我国进口LNG定价和资源采购成本,在分析全球LNG贸易定价历史演变规律的基础上,系统总结了2020年新签LNG合约的定价趋势,对比了我国LNG进口长协定价模式及其存在的问题。研究结果表明:①全球LNG贸易定价机制已向多元化转变,区域特点和“亚洲溢价”问题明显,不同定价机制互为补充;②新签LNG长协与油价挂钩回归主导地位,挂钩斜率继续下降,出现动态混合S曲线;③我国LNG长协与油价挂钩占比高,尚不具备气—气竞争的市场条件且价格复议周期长。进而对我国LNG进口定价提出以下建议:①坚持“短期灵活”和“长期稳定”原则,综合运用气—气竞争、与Brent价格挂钩等多种方式,不能完全与油价脱钩;②参照全球新签合约及亚洲已复议合约,坚持市场平价原则,完善价格复议条款,缩短复议期;③国家要支持建设天然气交易中心和期货市场,尽快形成国际认可的区域基准价格;④提前做好预案,建立风险对冲机制,控制LNG进口资源总体成本。Natural gas is of great significance to ensuring China's energy security and achieving"carbon neutrality"by 2060.However,the lack of power to decide LNG import pricing and the high resource cost bring challenges to the stable supply of natural gas in China.In this regard,after analyzing the historical evolution laws of global LNG pricing,this paper systematically summarizes the pricing trends of newly signed contracts in 2020,and comparatively analyzes China's long-term LNG import pricing modes and its problems.And the following research results were obtained.First,the global LNG pricing mechanism is more diversified,regional characteristics and"Asian premium"problems are obvious,and different pricing mechanisms complement each other.Second,the newly signed long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices to play a dominant role again,and the oil-linked slope declines continuously and presents a dynamic mixed S-curve.Third,China's long-term LNG agreement is linked with oil prices at a high proportion,so there are no market conditions of gas-gas competition and the price review period is long.Finally,several suggestions were proposed for China's LNG import pricing.Firstly,stick to the principles of"short-term flexibility"and"long-term stability",and make use of multiple modes comprehensively,e.g.gas-gas competition and Brent price linked,instead of completely decoupling oil prices.Secondly,referring to global newly signed contracts and Asian reviewed contracts,adhere to the principle of market parity,improve the price review terms and shorten the review period.Thirdly,the government shall support the construction of natural gas trading centers and futures markets and form the internationally recognized regional benchmark price as soon as possible.Fourthly,make a plan in advance,establish a risk hedging mechanism and control the overall cost of imported LNG resources.

关 键 词：全球LNG贸易 现货 长期合同 长协 定价机制:气—气竞争 与油价挂钩 亚洲溢价 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746