黄河流域水量分配和再分配  

Water resources allocation and re-allocation of the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：陈琛 郭甲嘉 沈大军[1] CHEN Chen;GUO Jiajia;SHEN Dajun(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第4期799-812,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项(中国人民大学2021年)。

摘　　要：流域水资源配置是黄河流域水资源管理的核心。本文应用破产理论和规则,研究了4种情形下的黄河流域水量分配和再分配,包括1987年流域水量分配、流域水量与入河泥沙量变化下的再分配、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略下的再分配以及南水北调西线工程下的再分配。得到以下发现:①1987年流域水量分配过程和结果的分析发现,分配最接近SSRs-PRO规则,在考虑省区地理位置的基础上体现了上下游统筹。②在当前流域经济和社会发展、生态环境、水沙关系变化情景下的分析表明,流域再次面临破产分配。③黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略下综合农业用水效率的再分配显示,用水效率高的山东、河南和四川在所有破产规则下分配水量都增加,而效率低的山西、青海、甘肃和宁夏都下降。④比较南水北调西线工程调水50.0亿、90.0亿和170.0亿m^(3)的规模发现,调水90.0亿m^(3)并继续沿用"87方案"的SSRs-PRO规则是一个合理的选择。将破产理论应用于黄河流域为黄河流域水量分配和再分配提供了一种新的思路。Basin water allocation is the core of water resources management in the Yellow River Basin. By applying the bankruptcy theory and water resources bankruptcy allocation rules, this study analyzed the water resources allocation and re-allocations in the Yellow River Basin under four scenarios, including the 1987 water resources allocation;water resources re-allocations under changes in natural water resources and sedimentation;water resources allocations under Yellow River ecological protection and high-quality development strategy;and water resources allocations under the implementation of the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The examination of the 1987 water resources allocation revealed that the allocations are more close to the sequential sharing rules-proportional rule(SSRs-PRO)bankruptcy rule, indicating a combination of provincial geographical location and upstreamdownstream coordination.(2) The analysis in view of the current situation of economic and social development, ecological environment, and water and sediment relationship in the basin showed that the basin is facing bankruptcy distribution again.(3) Under ecological protection and highquality development strategy in the river basin, the re-allocation analysis incorporating agricultural water use efficiency indicated that the provinces with high water productivity, including Shandong,Henan, and Sichuan Provinces, will enjoy increased allocation under all bankruptcy rules;while Shanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia, where water productivity is low, will have decreased allocation.(4) The comparison between diversion scales of 5, 9, and 17 billion m^(3) of the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project showed that 9 billion m^(3) division and application of SSRs-PRO of the"Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme in 1987"is a reasonable choice for the Yellow River Basin. Applying bankruptcy theory to the Yellow River Basin provides a new perspective for water resources allocation and re-allocatio

关 键 词：黄河流域 破产分配 水量再分配 农业用水效率 南水北调西线工程 流域生态保护和高质量发展 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]