银杏超小卷叶蛾成虫羽化规律及其预测模型初探  

Study on eclosion regularity and forecasting model of the adults of Pammene ginkgoicola Liu

作　　者：刘云鹏[1] 李金华[2] 李华平 李玲 Liu Liu Yunpeng;Li Jinhua;Li Huaping;Li Ling(Jiangsu Academy of Forestry,Nanjing 211153,China;Forestry Technology Extension Central Station of Taixing County,Taixing 225400,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省林业科学研究院,江苏南京211153 [2]泰兴市林业技术推广中心,江苏泰兴225400

出　　处：《江苏林业科技》2021年第2期10-14,共5页Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science & Technology

基　　金：江苏省林业科技创新与推广项目“银杏超小卷叶蛾监测及绿色防控技术研究与示范”(LYKJ[2018]23)。

摘　　要：银杏超小卷叶蛾的虫情调查和虫情预测通常是基于成虫羽化后留下的蛹壳来实现。基于2015—2019年的多年多点观测数据,明确了成虫蛹壳分布及成虫羽化规律,并探讨了温度与羽化进度之间的相关性,初步构建了该虫羽化始盛期预测模型。银杏超小卷叶蛾蛹壳分布与寄主植株胸径有关,胸径20—30 cm的植株上蛹壳最多,太粗和太细的植株蛹壳数均偏少。此外,其分布还与光照有关,总体以向阳面偏多,背阴面偏少。银杏超小卷叶蛾有2个羽化高峰,其中3月底至4月初的羽化高峰期较为明显,羽化量占当年羽化总数的50%以上。通过多元逐步回归分析方法,基于2月下旬和3月上旬的平均温度,初步建立了银杏超小卷叶蛾成虫羽化始盛期预测模型y=95.545-0.509x_(2)-0.031x_(1)x_(2),其R2为0.9999,P为0.0001,达到极显著水平,可以作为银杏超小卷叶蛾成虫测报模型参考应用。The investigation and prediction of Pammene ginkgoicola Liu are usually based on the pupa shells left after adult eclosion.In this paper,by using the fixed-point observation data from 2015 to 2019,the distribution of pupa shells and the rules of eclosion were described,further the correlation between temperature and eclosion progress discussed.A forecasting model for the adult beginning period was initially constructed.We concluded that the distribution of pupa shells was related to the DBH of the host plant.There occurred the most pupa shells on the plants with DBH of 20—30 cm while the least on too thick or too thin ones.In addition,the distribution was also related to light,more in sunny side but less in shaded side.P.ginkgoicola eclosion was characteristic of two peaks,with obvious one from the end of March to the early April.The eclosion amount accounted for more than 50%of the total amount that year.According to the average temperature in the late February and early March,forecasting model was obtained through multiple stepwise regression analysis:y=95.545-0.509x_(2)-0.031x_(1)x_(2),with the determination coefficients(R2)is 0.9999 and P value of 0.0001,reaching the significant level.It could be referred to as the eclosion forecast.

关 键 词：银杏超小卷叶蛾 羽化 预测 模型 蛹壳 

分 类 号：Q969.429.4[生物学—昆虫学] S763.42[农业科学—森林保护学]