15世纪中叶火山喷发对青藏高原和北极水热组合的影响  

IMPACT OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ON HYDRO-THERMAL COMBINATION OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ARCTIC DURING MID-FIFTEENTH CENTURY

作　　者：刘威[1,2] 史锋 肖国桥[1] 薛惠鸿 段安民[5] 效存德 郭正堂[2,3,4] LIU Wei;SHI Feng;XIAO Guoqiao;XUE Huihong;DUAN Anmin;XIAO Cunde;GUO Zhengtang(School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,Hubei;Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment,CAS,Beijing 100044;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室,北京100029 [3]中国科学院生物演化与环境卓越创新中心,北京100044 [4]中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京100049 [5]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [6]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2021年第3期714-725,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41888101、41690114、42077406和41877440);国家重点研究发展计划项目(批准号:2016YFA0600504);中国科学院(B类)战略性先导科技专项项目(批准号:XDB26020204);中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所重点部署项目(批准号:IGGCAS-201905)共同资助。

摘　　要：国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,简称CMIP5)多模式集合平均与过去2000年全球变化网络(Past Global Changes 2k Network,简称PAGES2k)代用记录重建的15世纪中叶全球温度年代际变化特征非常一致,规避了模式和气候代用记录由于各自的不确定性而导致两者的不匹配现象,为揭示自然因素主导气候变化的机理提供了完美时间窗口。而火山喷发作为15世纪中叶气候变化最主要的外强迫,其对区域气候变化在年代际尺度的影响仍不清楚。本文利用通用地球系统模式过去千年集合模拟(Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble,简称CESM-LME),分析了15世纪中叶连续火山喷发对北半球"两极"(青藏高原和北极)温度、降水和水热组合年代际变化的影响。结果表明,15世纪中叶连续的火山喷发对青藏高原和北极夏季气候年代际变化的直接强迫作用,导致青藏高原和北极地区的温度和降水发生年代际尺度的下降和减少、水热组合趋于同向变化,而火山活动的间接作用可能通过影响气候系统内部变率北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,简称AO)和大西洋经圈翻转环流(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,简称AMOC)来调控冬季温度和降水的变化。Volcanic eruption is the most important natural forcing driving climate change over the past millennium.The decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on the regional climate is still unclear prior to instrumental observations,partly due to the inconsistency between model data and reconstruction.The multi-model ensemble mean of the global mean surface temperature(GMST)of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)and GMST reconstructed by Past Global Changes(PAGES)2k consortium are distinctly consistent in decadal variability during mid-fifteenth century,which provides the time windows to reveal the influences of the natural factors on climate change and avoids the mismatch between model data and proxy reconstruction.Based on the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble(CESM-LME),we explore the decadal variations of temperature,precipitation and hydro-thermal combination in the Tibetan Plateau and Arctic after the two volcanic eruptions during mid-fifteenth century.Firstly,we select four ensemble members that are highly correlated with the proxy reconstruction from PAGES2k GMST project.Secondly,to evaluate the decadal-scale climate impact of these two volcanic eruptions over mid-fifteenth century,we select two 30-years periods(1422~1451 A.D.and 1445~1474 A.D)that two tropical volcanic eruption were predicted to occur over the later period and none occurred over the previous period.In addition,there isn’t abrupt change for the other forcings over the periods.Results show the mean area-averaged summer temperature of the Tibetan Plateau(Arctic)is reduced by approximately 0.14~0.29℃(0.13~0.21℃)relative to the previous period during 1445~1474 A.D.,which is comparable to the single-forcing(volcanic forcing)ensemble members.This indicates that the Tibetan Plateau and Arctic experienced decadal-scale reduction in temperature and precipitation,and the conditions of hydro-thermal combination became drier and colder.The mechanism analysis shows that the volcanic forcing is a dominant factor to dr

关 键 词：火山活动 青藏高原 北极 年代际变化 水热组合 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P534.632