美元的未来  

The Future of US Dollar

作　　者：张礼卿[1,2] ZHANG Li-qing

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学国际金融研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《金融论坛》2021年第5期3-6,39,共5页Finance Forum

摘　　要：美国经济增长的持续低迷现象短期内难以改变。疫情冲击下美国的超级宽松财政货币政策加大了美国金融体系的潜在不稳定性,将导致美元在未来一个时期持续疲软。在美联储开始加息之前,美元将继续停留在2017年开始的弱势区域,不太可能出现较强的持续反弹。国际社会正在反思现行国际货币体系缺陷并进行改革,在可以预见的未来,最可能的情形是美元、欧元和人民币形成三足鼎立的格局,其中美元占40%,人民币和欧元分别占20%。The continued downturn in US economic growth will not change in the short term.The US ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policy owing to the impact of the epidemic has increased the potential instability of the US financial system,which will cause the US dollar to continue to weaken in the coming period.Before the Fed starts to raise interest rates,the US dollar will continue to stay in the weak region that began in 2017,and a strong sustained rebound is unlikely.The international community is reflecting on the shortcomings of the current international monetary system and carrying out reforms.In the foreseeable future,the most likely scenario is that the US dollar,the Euro,and the RMB form a tripartite pattern,with the US dollar accounting for 40%,the RMB and Euro accounting each for 20%.

关 键 词：美元 美元国际地位 美元汇率周期 国际货币体系 

分 类 号：F33[经济管理—产业经济]