均衡汇率估算方法与人民币汇率话语权  

The Method of Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rate and the Discourse Power of RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：何昌[1] HE Chang

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《金融论坛》2021年第5期71-80,共10页Finance Forum

摘　　要：本文对边界商品的相对劳动生产率进行处理,形成三种不同的汇率估算方法,即人均GDP法、地区人均GDP替代法以及收入差值法。针对英国《经济学家》编制的"巨无霸指数",利用收入差值法估算了基于人民币汇率的修正的"巨无霸指数",结果表明人民币汇率是被高估了,但是高估的程度在持续下降。这一研究结果将为人民币汇率获得话语权提供支持。By studying the relative labor productivity of border commodities,this paper proposes three different methods of exchange rate estimation,namely,GDP per capita method,regional GDP per capita substitution method and income difference method.Like the"Big Mac index"compiled by The Economist,this paper estimates the revised"Big Mac index"based on the RMB exchange rate by using the income difference method.The results show that the RMB exchange rate is overvalued,but the degree of overvaluation continues to decline.This result will provide support for RMB exchange rate to gain the discourse power.

关 键 词：修正的巨无霸指数 人民币汇率 话语权 收入差值法 

分 类 号：F31[经济管理—产业经济] F38