“一带一路”沿线国家制度环境对中国农产品出口贸易的影响研究  

The Influence of Institutional Environment on China’s Agricultural Products Export to the Countries along the Belt and Road

作　　者：姚辉斌 彭新宇[2] YAO Huibin;PENG Xinyu

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410006 [2]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,长沙410114

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2021年第4期17-29,共13页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“推进农业服务规模经营的利益机制及支持政策研究”(编号:19BJL030)。

摘　　要：已有研究大多关注"一带一路"沿线国家农产品贸易,但少有文献提及"一带一路"沿线国家制度环境对中国农产品出口贸易影响的多维特征、非线性特征和区域特征。本文采用2010—2017年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的数据和面板分位数方法,在理论分析的基础上,实证检验"一带一路"沿线国家制度环境对中国农产品出口贸易的影响。研究结果表明,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家农产品出口倾向于选择政府高效、政治稳定、监管严格的东道国;从不同维度的制度环境来看,东道国政府效率、政治稳定与杜绝暴力恐怖主义、监管质量、话语权与问责制的影响系数显著为正,但腐败控制和法治水平的影响不显著;分位数回归进一步显示了东道国制度环境对中国农产品出口的显著正向影响主要分布在低中分位点;样带比较揭示了"一带一路"沿线国家制度环境对中国农产品出口的影响集中在"21世纪海上丝绸之路"。Although a lot of research focuses on the agricultural trade of countries along the Belt and Road,little literature mentions the multi-dimensional characteristics,nonlinear characteristics and regional characteristics of the impact of the institutional environment of countries along the Belt and Road on China’s agricultural product export trade.This article uses data from China and countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2017 and a panel quantile method.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper empirically examines the impact of the institutional environment on China’s agricultural export trade to the countries along the Belt and Road.The research shows that China is more likely to choose the host country with high government efficiency,political stability,and strict supervision for agricultural products export to the countries along the Belt and Road.From the perspective of different dimensions of institutional environments,the influence coefficients of the host country’s government efficiency,political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism,regulatory quality,voice and accountability are significantly positive,but the influence of control of corruption and rule of law are not significant.The quantile regression further shows that the significant positive effects of the host country’s institutional environment on China’s agricultural exports are mainly concentrated in the low and middle quantiles.The comparison of the sample belts reveals that the impact of the institutional environment of countries along the Belt and Road on China’s agricultural exports is mainly reflected in the"21 st Century Maritime Silk Road".

关 键 词：制度环境 农产品出口 一带一路 面板分位数 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62