目标价格补贴政策实施对农产品期货基差的影响——以大豆系品种为例  

The Impact of Agricultural Price Support Policies on the Basis Level of Agricultural Commodity Futures——Based on the Perspective of Behavioral Economics

作　　者：邢璐瑶 郭沛[1] XING Luyao;GUO Pei

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2021年第4期46-58,共13页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

摘　　要：商品期货价格基差是衡量期货市场功能效率的重要指标之一,期货和现货价差走势大幅偏离等异常现象有可能引发市场系统性风险,影响基差水平的因素值得关注和研究。大豆目标价格补贴政策实施后,大豆系商品期现货基差走势发生明显变化。基于行为经济学视角,分析目标价格补贴政策对农产品期货基差的影响,发现目标价格补贴政策无论在期货升水还是贴水状态下,均显著影响期现货基差水平。同时,投资者行为在目标价格补贴政策影响期现货基差的过程中起到一定的遮掩效应或中介效应。进一步完善农业价格政策,引导投资者审慎交易,提高期货市场机构参与度将有效提高农产品期货市场运行效率。Commodity futures price basis is one of the important indicators to measure the functional efficiency of the futures market.Market anomalies such as large deviations in the trend of spot and futures spreads may cause market systemic risks.Therefore,the factors affecting the basic level are worthy of attention and research.After the implementation of the soybean target price subsidy policy,the futures and spot basis trends of soybeans,soybean oil,and soybean meal have changed significantly.Based on the perspective of behavioral economics,analyze the impact of target price subsidy policy based on agricultural futures.The results found that the agricultural price support policy significantly affected the futures basis level regardless of the futures premium or discount.At the same time,investor behavior has a certain shadowing effect or mediate effect in the process of the target price subsidy policy affecting the spot basis.Further improving the agricultural price policy,guiding investors to prudent transactions,and increasing the participation of futures market institutions will effectively improve the operational efficiency of the agricultural futures market.

关 键 词：目标价格补贴政策 农产品期货 基差 行为经济学 

分 类 号：F724.5[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7