神经内科患者医院感染概率预测模型及评价  

Prediction Model and Evaluation of Nosocomial Infection Probability of Neurological Patients

作　　者：谢晓梅 杨洁 张英[1] XIE Xiao-mei;YANG Jie;ZHANG Ying(Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province)

机构地区：[1]浙江省台州医院

出　　处：《医院管理论坛》2021年第3期74-76,共3页Hospital Management Forum

摘　　要：目的探讨神经内科患者医院感染率及其危险因素,构建概率预测模型。方法选取13529例神经内科患者进行回顾性调查,根据患者住院期间是否发生医院感染分为感染组和非感染组;采用多因素逐步Logistic回归模型筛选医院感染的高危因素,并构建Logistic回归概率预测模型,采用ROC曲线法进行模型评价。结果神经内科患者医院感染率为3.53%(477/13529),以呼吸道感染为主;影响神经内科患者医院感染的高危因素包括高龄(OR=3.028)、合并基础疾病(OR=3.766)、侵入性操作(OR=4.918)、机械通气(OR=4.397)、联合使用抗菌药物(OR=5.339)、三代及以上头孢(OR=3.487)及住院时间(OR=4.233)。结论神经内科患者的医院感染率高达3.53%,且有较多的高危因素影响医院感染的发生;应根据高危因素和Logistic回归概率预测模型,筛查医院感染的高危人群,早期采取预防性措施,降低医院感染率,改善患者的预后。Objective To explore the incidence rate and risk factors of nosocomial infection in neurology patients,and to build up probability prediction model.Methods Retrospective investigation was conducted on 13529 neurology patients,which were divided into infection group and non-infection group according to whether nosocomial infection occurred during the hospitalization of the patients.Multivariate stepwise Logistic regression model was used to screen the high-risk factors of nosocomial infection.Results The incidence rate of nosocomial infection in neurology patients was 3.53%(477/13529),and the main affected site was respiratory tract.The high-risk factors included advanced age(OR=3.028),commorbidities(OR=3.766),invasive operation(OR=4.918),mechanical ventilation(OR=4.397),combined use of antibiotics(OR=5.339),use of third generation and above cephalosporins(OR=3.487)and length of stay(OR=4.233).Conclusion The incidence rate of nosocomial infection in neurology patients is as high as 3.53%,which is affected by many high-risk factors.The hospital should screen the high-risk population of nosocomial infection according to the high-risk factors and Logistic regression probability prediction model,take early preventive measures,so as to cut down the incidence rate of nosocomial infection and improve the prognosis of patients.

关 键 词：神经内科 医院感染 危险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]