基于集合预报的川渝地区极端降水指数应用研究  

Application of Extreme Precipitation Forecast Index in Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the Ensemble Forecast System

作　　者：吴志鹏 陈静[2] 汪娇阳 何军 陈鹏 张虹 李晶 Wu Zhipeng;Chen Jing;Wang Jiaoyang;He Jun;Chen Peng;Zhang Hong;Li Jing(Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147;Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;Unit 58 of PLA 96164 Army,Jinhua 321021)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象台,重庆401147 [2]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081 [3]中国人民解放军96164部队58分队,金华321021

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第2期52-57,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：重庆市气象局青年基金项目(QNJJ-201602);重庆市气象局业务技术攻关团队项目(YWGGTD-201602);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(91644226)。

摘　　要：利用2007—2012年中国气象局T213集合预报资料,根据Lalaurette提出的集合预报极端天气指数预报方法,提取并对比分析了川渝地区的集合预报累计概率密度分布函数特征,建立了基于集合预报与其历史预报的累计概率密度分布函数连续差异的数学模型—极端降水预报指数(EPFI),并对川渝地区历史上3次预报服务误差较大的典型灾害性强降水过程进行了极端降水预报指数的预警试验。结果表明:极端降水预报指数可以充分利用集合降水累计概率密度分布的尾端信息,为川渝地区极端强降水提供科学合理的预警,在3次强降水预报业务中可提前1~5?d发出极端强降水预警信号,对控制预报的强降水落区有一定订正功能与补充指导作用;对于不同强降水天气过程,极端降水预报指数在不同预报时效上的预报能力有较大差异,但都对极端强降水的落区有较好的预报效果,在实际预报业务中,为灾害性降水落区的预报决策提供了有价值的参考。According to the method of Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) developed by Lalaurette.Using the CMA T213 forecast precipitation data during 2007—2012,cumulative distribution functions (CDF) in Sichuan-Chongqing region was analyzed.An Extreme Precipitation Forecast Index (EPFI) model suitable for Sichuan-Chongqing region was established,then tested in three typical heavy rainfall processes.The results show that the EPFI can take advantage of the tail information of the CDF based on the EPS,providing scientific and rational forecast for extreme heavy precipitation.It can provide early warning information on extreme heavy precipitation 1 to 5 days in advance,and has the ability to correct or give guidance to the location of heavy rainfall.For different rainfall events,the ability of the EPFI are varied,but have a good performance on the falling area of extreme precipitation,and provide valuable information to the forecasters in the operational forecast.

关 键 词：集合预报 极端降水预报指数 模式气候累计概率 川渝地区强降水 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]