海口市紫外线辐射特征分析及预报方法研究  

Characteristic Analysis of Ultraviolet Radiation in Haikou and Research on Its Forecast Method

作　　者：魏晓雯 陈明[1,2] 陈亮 Wei Xiaowen;Chen Ming;Chen Liang(Hainan Meteorological Service Center,Haikou 570203;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象服务中心,海口570203 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第2期167-171,共5页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：利用2015—2019年海口市紫外辐射数据、常规气象观测数据以及环境观测数据,在分析海口市紫外辐射强度变化特征及其大气环流背景的基础上,从大气辐射传输理论出发,将大气辐射传输模型与经验统计方法相结合,建立海口市紫外辐射强度的逐日和逐时预报方法。逐日紫外线预报方法满足常规预报业务需求,逐时紫外线预报为海南省全域旅游气象服务提供更加精细的参考。By using the ultraviolet radiation data,conventional meteorological observation data and environmental observation data in Haikou from 2015 to 2019,the variation characteristics of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Haikou and its atmospheric circulation background were analyzed.Based on the theory of atmospheric radiation transmission,the atmospheric radiation transmission model and the empirical statistical method were combined to establish daily and hourly forecast methods for ultraviolet radiation intensity in Haikou.Daily forecast method of ultraviolet radiation could meet the needs of conventional forecast business requirements,and hourly forecast method can provide better references for Hainan all-for-one tourism meteorological service.

关 键 词：紫外线 大气辐射传输 逐步回归 预报方程 

分 类 号：P422.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456