拜登政府对外战略中的南亚要素:印度、巴基斯坦和阿富汗  

South Asia Elements in Biden Administration s Foreign Strategy:India,Pakistan and Afghanistan

作　　者：张力[1,2] Zhang Li

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社科重点研究基地四川大学南亚研究所 [2]"985工程"南亚及当代国际问题创新研究基地

出　　处：《南亚研究季刊》2021年第1期1-15,154,共16页South Asian Studies Quarterly

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“南亚地区安全与‘一带一路’建设研究”(项目编号:19JJD810002)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：拜登执政后,美国的南亚政策有望保持较大连续性,也会因形势所需而出现某些调整。美国与印度的战略合作将继续升温,双方对"印太"接触的兴趣和能量也将不断放大,但节奏、程度和性质将受两方利害差异及其他外部因素的调节。从务实的战略利益出发,拜登政府有意改善美巴关系,而美巴关系将在很大程度上受制于美国的阿富汗政策和印巴关系的稳定。美国从阿富汗撤军的目标不会改变,但拜登政府的政策选项与阿富汗及地区的不确定现实之间存在着较大脱节,新提"和平计划"仍受到挑战并会有所调整。这些区域性要素并非孤立发展,而是以多种方式相互作用、相互影响,并影响拜登政府时期美国对外战略的基本面。With Joe Biden taking office US South Asia policy is expected to be of consistence but also subject to certain recalibration upon circumstances.America s strategic cooperation with India will continue to escalate and both sides will enlarge their interest and energy in engaging in the Indo-Pacific,though the pace,degree and nature of it be regulated as a result of differentiated calculus as well as outside factors.The administration intends to repair US relations with Pakistan on the grounds of pragmatic strategic needs,but US-Pak ties will primarily be constrained by Washington s Afghan policy and the problematic Indo-Pak relations.The US will stick to the target of withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan,yet Biden s policy options seem not to fully fit in with the ground reality of that violence-ravaged country and the region at large,so the ongoing“peace plan”still faces challenge and remains open to revising.All these regional elements tend to be interwind and mutually conditioned,and will substantially act on the mainstay of Biden administration s foreign strategy.

关 键 词：拜登政府 南亚 “印太” 阿富汗问题 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]