基于ESDA-GIS的广东省耕地生态承压能力时空特征研究  

Study on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Cultivated Land Ecological Pressure-Bearing Capacity in Guangdong Province Based on ESDA-GIS

作　　者：陈士银 宾津佑 蔡世煜 CHEN Shiyin;BIN Jinyou;CAI Shiyu(College of Management,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524088,China;Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524088,China)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学管理学院,广东湛江524088 [2]广东沿海经济带发展研究院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2021年第4期358-365,374,共9页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：广东省教育科学规划课题(2019GXJK080);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD19YYJ03);广东沿海经济带发展研究院2020年专项课题(YJY202002)。

摘　　要：为保障粮食安全和耕地生态安全可持续发展,以粮食调入、人口迁入大省,同时也是全国耕地面积减少幅度最大的区域--广东省为例,运用“国家hm 2”概念下的生态足迹模型以及ESDA-GIS分析方法,对传统模型中的产量因子进行修正,探究了2008—2017年广东省耕地生态承压能力的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)2008—2017年广东省耕地生态足迹、耕地生态承载力在研究期内总体呈“雁行”波动下降趋势,耕地生态供给出现持续赤字,广东省耕地承压能力指数介于0.500~0.520,处于弱不可持续的状态。(2)研究期间内广东省各地级市耕地生态承压能力指数介于0.440~0.600,耕地生态承压类型均以弱不可持续和弱可持续类型为主,耕地生态承压能力负荷严重。(3)广东省各地级市耕地生态承压能力呈不均衡分布,且在空间分布上存在着显著正向空间自相关性,但空间集聚态势有所减弱;Moran散点图表明广东省各地级市耕地生态承压能力在空间分布上存在高—高或低—低集聚现象。总之,广东省耕地生态承载能力不容乐观,且耕地资源区域禀赋差异明显,因地制宜、分区管控、高效利用是其主要发展方向。In order to guarantee food security and sustainable development of ecological security of cultivated land,taking Guangdong Province with large introduction of grain food and population as an example,which is also the region with the largest reduction in cultivated land area in China,we used ESDA-GIS analysis method and ecological footprint model under the concept of‘national hectare’to revise the yield factors in the traditional model,and explored the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of cultivated land ecological pressure-bearing capacity in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2017.The results show that:(1)during the study period,the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Guangdong Province generally showed the downward trend with the flying geese-type fluctuation,and the ecological supply of cultivated land showed the continuous deficit;the index of cultivated land pressure capacity in Guangdong Province was between 0.500 and 0.520,which was in a weak and unsustainable state;(2)from 2008 to 2017,the indexes of cultivated land ecological pressure capacity of all prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province ranged from 0.440 to 0.600;the types of cultivated land ecological pressure were mainly‘weakly unsustainable’and‘weakly sustainable’,and the load of cultivated land ecological pressure capacity was serious;(3)the ecological bearing capacities of cultivated land in all prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province unevenly distributed,and there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation in spatial distribution,but the spatial agglomeration tendency was somewhat weakened;Moran scatter diagram showed that each district city of Guangdong Province farmland ecological pressure presented the spatial distribution of the high—high or low—low agglomeration phenomenon.In a word,the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Guangdong Province is not optimistic and the regional endowment of cultivated land resources is obviously different.Therefore,the

关 键 词：耕地生态承压能力 生态足迹 时空特征 ESDA-GIS 广东省 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]