“一带一路”倡议对中国节点城市经济增长的影响——基于284个城市的面板数据  

Assessment of the Impact of"the Belt and Road"on Cities Economic Growth in China--Based on Panel Data of 284 Cities

作　　者：王亦虹[1] 田平野 WANG Yi-hong;TIAN Ping-ye(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《软科学》2021年第5期43-49,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BGL220)。

摘　　要：选取中国284个地级及以上城市2008~2017年面板数据,以倾向得分匹配挑选平行趋势样本,利用双重差分法对"城市-时间"进行倍差估计,通过安慰剂检验,表现出良好的政策唯一性特征;进一步对倡议的动态效应、异质性与传导机制进行分析。研究发现:倡议对国内节点城市经济具有愈益增强的促进作用,尤其对内陆和欠发达城市的促进效应更为显著;这种正向带动作用主要通过基础设施建设、对外直接投资和对外贸易三条路径实现。Selecting parallel trend samples through propensity score matching based on the panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2017, this paper estimates the ″city-time″ and passes the placebo test by the double difference method. The estimation results show policies unique characteristics. And then, it analyzes the dynamic effects, heterogeneity and transmission mechanism of the initiative. Results show that the initiative has an increasingly enhanced promotion effect on domestic node cities, especially inland and underdeveloped cities, especially inland and underdeveloped cities. This positive driving effect is mainly through infrastructure construction, external direct investment and foreign trade are realized.

关 键 词：经济增长 “一带一路”倡议 中国节点城市 双重差分法 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]