新冠肺炎疫情对中东国家经济的冲击与地区应对  

The Impact of Covid-19 on Middle East Economy and Its Regional Counteracting Policies

作　　者：朱兆一 Zhu Zhaoyi(Academy of China Open Economy Studies,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《学术探索》2021年第5期54-68,共15页Academic Exploration

摘　　要：新冠肺炎全球大流行给世界经济带来了巨大冲击,中东地区更甚。在疫情和油价低迷的双重打击下,中东产油国收入锐减,并传导到其他非产油国,使中东经济陷入整体低迷。为了阻止经济衰退,中东各国纷纷出台系列财政措施、货币措施、经贸和产业措施,确保市场流动性和经济活力,救助中小企业,缩减政府开支,保障民众就业和基本民生需求。基于疫情发展的具体情况,不同国家从不同国情出发。实施不同的组合政策,部分对冲了经济下行的不利影响。在新冠肺炎疫情常态化的新形势下,中东经济迎来了更多变数,也孕育了不少机遇。一方面,疫情支出和经济救助措施放大了各国赤字,部分国家可能爆发债务危机和社会危机。另一方面,疫情加速了中东国家数字产业的发展,也加速了中东的区域融合,并为中东产油国经济多元化的重构提供了重要机遇。就中国和中东的合作而言,双边经贸合作关系经受住了考验,并在加快自贸区谈判、加速创新型“一带一路”建设、加快数字产业合作等领域达成了更多共识,双边合作空间日趋广阔。The global pandemic of COVID-19 that began in March 2020 has had a huge impact on the world economy,especially in the Middle East.Under the dual effect of both Covid-19 and low-price oil,national income of oil importing countries dropped sharply,so did the non-oil importing countries.All the countries in the region,with different countries vary in details,implemented a series of fiscal,monetary,trading,industrial policies to counteract the negative impact,aiming to support liquidity of the market,save small&medium sized companies,secure employment rate,and provide basic life commodities for the poor.And these efforts,to some extent,have partially offset the adverse effects of the economic downturn.However,the comprehensive performance of Covid-19 combat in the region can hardly be rated as excellent.As the virus combat continues,there will be more uncertainties and opportunities for Middle East economy in the long run.On one hand,there might be debt crisis and social crisis under the accumulation of economy recession;on the other hand,the pandemic stimulates the development of digital industries and digital economy,as well as regional integration,and economic diversification in oil importing countries.Despite the pandemic,Sino-Middle East economic ties continue to grow,bilateral cooperation in the fields of Free Trade Area,the innovative“One Belt One Road”,and digital economic two-way investments are expected to materialize in the upcoming years.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 中东经济 经济措施 经贸合作 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系]