售租比、房地产信贷结构与政府调控政策的周期性  

Price-to-Rent Ratio,Real Estate Credit Structure,and the Cycles of Government’s Regulation and Controlling Policies

作　　者：平新乔[1] 董兴 PING Xinqiao;DONG Xing(Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2021年第5期12-28,共17页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用研究”(14AZD010);北京大学加强基础研究专项项目“现代治理框架中的中国财政税收研究”(7101500316)。

摘　　要：基于国家信息中心中国房地产信息网宏观经济与房地产数据库2012—2018年的35个大中型城市的面板数据和全国时序数据,本文研究了中国楼市的泡沫问题。研究发现:按售租比25作为泡沫存在的尺码,则在2012—2018年,所成交的80%的商用房和写字楼不存在泡沫,但60%的住宅房交易存在泡沫。在35个城市的住宅交易泡沫现象中,2012年1月—2016年3月的泡沫程度温和(售租比在29~33),2016年3月后则进入高泡沫阶段(售租比在40及以上)。数据显示,银行信贷结构的扩张性变化对于住宅市场的泡沫具有“领先”作用;而计量结果表明,个人住房贷款余额占比与一、二、三类住宅的售租比之间存在着正反馈的双向的格兰杰因果关系,这意味着中国的住宅市场交易里是不存在市场内在稳定器的。这种正反馈效应决定了中国住宅楼市的稳定力量只能依靠政府的调控政策。事实上,2012—2018年政府每隔两年(或两年多几个月)就会变更住宅房地产政策调控方向,形成“收缩——扩张——再收缩——再扩张……”的政策调控周期。Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities and national time series data from 2012 to 2018 in the Macro Economy and Real Estate Database of China Real Estate Information in State Information Center,this paper investigated the issue of the bubbles in China’s real estate markets.It is found that,taking the price-to-rent ratio 25 as the threshold of real estate bubbles,then only about 20% of the samples of non-residential houses slightly have bubbles,while about 60% of the samples of residential houses have bubbles.It is recorded by the real estate exchange in 35 cities that,from January 2012 to March 2016,the bubble appeared mild(the price-to-rent ratio is 29~33),whereas climbed to a higher point(the price-to-rent ratio is 40 or above)after March 2016.It is shown that,the expansional changes in the bank credit structure appeared ahead of the housing market bubbles.Furthermore,the empirical research shows that,there is a positive cointegration relationship and two-way Granger causality between the logarithm sequence of the price-to-rent ratio of three kinds of residential houses and the logarithm sequence of the proportion of personal housing loan balance,which means there are no stabilizers in the residential house market in China.The only stabler comes from the government’s regulation and controling policies on real estate.In fact,the short history of 2012—2018 witness the cycles of“contraction-expansion-recontraction-reexpansion...”,and each stage of the cycle would be lasting about two years or few more months.

关 键 词：售租比 房地产信贷 房地产泡沫 房地产调控 政府调控政策 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]