近59a锡林郭勒草原旱灾驱动气候因子分析  

Analysis of drought-driving climatic factors of Xilin Gol grassland in the past 59 years

作　　者：赵水霞 王文君 吴英杰[1] 全强 王思楠 陈晓俊 刘铁军[1] ZHAO Shuixia;WANG Wenjun;WU Yingjie;QUAN Qiang;WANG Sinan;CHEN Xiaojun;LIU Tiejun(Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Hohhot 010020,Inner Mongolia,China;Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010020 [2]内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2021年第3期785-793,共9页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目和重大专项(201802123,2020ZD0020-2);中国水科院基本科研专项(MK2020J12,MK2020J11);国家自然科学基金项目(52009084,51779156);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2020BS05038,2017BS0512)。

摘　　要：锡林郭勒草原是我国北方典型的干旱半干旱牧区,利用1959-2017年研究区不同地理位置逐日气温和降水数据,通过计算潜在蒸散量和水分盈亏量,结合趋势分析和R/S极差分析等方法,研究干旱半干旱牧区气候因子的时空分布特征及变化趋势,为北方牧区干旱的监测和预测提供科学支撑。研究表明:过去59 a,锡林郭勒草原气温呈显著增加趋势[0.39℃·(10a)^(-1)],降水呈缓慢减小趋势[-5.40 mm·(10a)^(-1)],气候逐渐趋于暖干化。研究区东南部的降雨量明显高于西北部,水分亏缺量由西向东逐渐递减,气温和潜在蒸散量则呈西南高、东北低的空间分布;不同地理位置关键致灾气候因子的年际变化差异显著,年内呈单峰型周期性变化,于7月份达到水热条件良好状态。锡林郭勒草原暖干化趋势的正持续性强烈,西部二连浩特地区荒漠化风险严重,东部西乌珠穆沁旗和中北部那仁宝力格地区降雨和水分盈亏量下降趋势显著,会对植被生长和生态环境产生不利影响。The Xilin Gol grassland is a typical arid and semi-arid pastoral area in northern China.The measured daily temperature and precipitation data of nine meteorological stations in Xilin Gol Leagues from 1959 to 2017 were used in this study.By calculating the potential evapotranspiration and water deficit and using trend analysis and the R/S range analysis method,the spatiotemporal variation and its impact on climatic factors in the arid and semi-arid areas were studied.This study provides scientific support for drought monitoring and prediction in northern pastoral areas.Results showed that in the past 59 years,air temperature in Xilin Gol Leagues has increased significantly[0.39°C·(10 a)^(-1)],while precipitation decreased[-5.4 mm·(10 a)^(-1)],and the climate gradually became warm and dry.The precipitation in the southeast of Xilin Gol Leagues is significantly higher than in the northwest.The water deficiency decreased gradually from west to east,and temperature and evapotranspiration in the southwest were higher than in the northeast.The inter-annual variation of key climatic factors(rainfall,temperature,ET0,and water surplus and deficit)in different geographical locations is significantly different.The variation within a year showed a single peak periodic change.This indicated that the best water and heat conditions are in July.The warm and dry tendency will continue positively in the future,and the risk of desertification in the western Erenhot will be more serious.The precipitation and water deficiency in eastern West Ujimqin Banner and Naren Baolige region,Abaga Banner in the middle and north region will decrease significantly in the future,having adverse effects on vegetation growth and the ecological environment.

关 键 词：干旱半干旱牧区 锡林郭勒草原 气候因子 时空特征 演化趋势 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]