传染病境外输入风险评估指标体系构建研究  

Study on the construction of risk assessment index system of imported infectious diseases

作　　者：刘珏[1] 梁万年 刘民[1] 吴俣 韩辉 周蕾[4] 王亚东[5] LIU Jue;LIANG Wannian;LIU Min;WU Yu;HAN Hui;ZHOU Lei;WANG Yadong(School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191 [2]清华大学万科公共卫生与健康学院,北京100084 [3]中国检验检疫科学院,北京100176 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京102206 [5]首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京100069

出　　处：《中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志》2021年第5期465-469,共5页China Journal of Emergency Resuscitation and Disaster Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:71934002);国家重点研发计划(编号:2020YFC0846300,2020YFC0849500);国家科技重大专项(编号:2020ZX10001002)。

摘　　要：目的构建传染病境外输入风险评估指标体系,为传染病境外输入风险科学评估提供有用工具.方法采用Delphi法两轮专家函询,确定传染病境外输入风险评估指标及其权重系数,通过专家积极系数、权威系数、协调系数等指标所构建的评价指标体系.结果共20名专家参与了本次研究,形成的指标体系包含目标层、准入层和指标层3个等级.准入层由病原体及疾病特性、自然因素、社会因素、预防控制能力和对社会和国家经济贸易的影响5个指标组成,指标层包含25个指标和102个具体指标内涵评分项.第1轮专家函询应答率为83.3%,第2轮应答率为100%;专家判断依据、熟悉程度和权威系数均≥0.7;第2轮咨询专家对指标重要性和可行性评分协调系数高于第1轮,两轮协调系数检验均具有统计学意义(均P<0.001).结论本研究所构建的传染病境外输入风险评估指标体系具有一定科学性和合理性,适用于对传染病境外输入风险的客观、定量、综合评估,可为传染病境外输入风险防控工作提供实用工具和科学参考.Objective To establish the risk assessment index system of imported infectious diseases,and to provide a useful tool for scientific assessment of imported infectious diseases.Methods Two rounds of expert consultation were conducted by Delphi method to determine the risk assessment index and its weight coefficient.The evaluation index system was constructed by experts'positive coefficient,authority coefficient,coordination coefficient and other indexes.Results A total of 20 experts participated in this study,and the index system formed consists of three levels:target level,admittance level and index level.The admittance level consists of 5 indicators,including pathogen and disease characteristics,natural factors,social factors,prevention and control ability,and influence on society and national economy and trade.The index level contains 25 indicators and 102 specific index connotation score items.The response rate of the first round of expert letter consultation was 83.3%,and that of the second round was 100%.Expert judgment basis,familiarity degree and authority coefficient were N0.7.The coordination coefficient of the evaluation of the importance and feasibility of the indicators by the consulting experts in the second round was higher than that in the first round,and the coordination coefficient test of the two rounds had statistical significance(all P<0.001).Conclusion The risk assessment index system of imported infectious diseases is scientific and reasonable to a certain extent.It is suitable for objective,quantitative and comprehensive assessment of imported infectious diseases,and can provide a practical tool and scientific reference for the prevention and control of imported infectious diseases.

关 键 词：传染病 输入风险 指标体系 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]