上市公司调研信息能预测公司未来业绩变化吗——基于调研披露中的财务类信息数据  

Can Survey Information of Listed Companies Predict the Changes in the Company’s Future Performance?A Study Based on the Financial Information Data in Disclosed Surveys

作　　者：岳思诗 董大勇[1] Yue Sishi;Dong Dayong(School of Economics and Management of Southwest Jiaotong University,Sichuan,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2021年第1期122-135,共14页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71862003、71773100)。

摘　　要：以2010-2019年披露调研信息文本的A股上市公司为研究样本,基于披露的财务类信息内容为研究视角,通过构建披露信息内容测度框架探讨上市公司披露的调研信息内容与公司未来业绩变化的关系,并考察披露调研信息内容偏好的影响因素,研究发现:上市公司在调研报告中披露财务类信息受到上市公司净资产收益率的影响;调研披露的财务类信息包含了净资产收益率没有的增量信息,能够预测上市公司未来业绩变化,有助于改善公司信息不对称,并且这种对公司未来业绩的预测力在非国有企业中更为明显。研究结论为投资者利用调研信息内容来预测公司未来业绩变化提供了经验证据。Using a sample of listed companies in China’s A stock market that disclosed survey information between 2010 and 2019 and from the perspective of disclosed financial information,we discussed the relationship between the survey information disclosed by listed companies and the change in their future performance by establishing a measurement framework of disclosed information,and investigated the factors for the preference of disclosure of survey information.We found that the financial information disclosed is affected by the rate of return on common stockholders’equity(ROE).Besides,the financial information also includes additional information that is not covered by ROE,which can predict change in the future performance of the listed companies and improve information asymmetry of the companies.Furthermore,the predictive power of future company performance is more salient among non-state-owned enterprises.Our conclusions can serve as empirical evidence for investors to predict future performance changes of companies based on survey information.

关 键 词：调研信息 公司业绩 财务类信息 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]