控烟政策背景下北京市卷烟价格、可负担性及价格对卷烟需求的影响  

Cigarette price,affordability and impact of price on cigarette demand in Beijing under tobacco control policies

作　　者：郑韵婷[1] 林昊翔 云青萍 陈美君 纪颖[1] 史宇晖[1] 常春[1] ZHENG Yun-ting;LIN Hao-xiang;YUN Qing-ping;CHEN Mei-jun;JI Ying;SHI Yu-hui;CHANG Chun(Department of Social Medicine and Health Education,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing,100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学医学部公共卫生学院社会医学与健康教育系,北京100191

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2021年第10期1830-1833,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71804003)。

摘　　要：目的本研究旨在分析控烟政策背景下北京市2004-2017年卷烟价格、烟草可负担性及卷烟需求价格弹性系数,为控烟政策发展提供参考。方法从《北京烟草年鉴》获取北京市卷烟销量、北京市卷烟单箱销售额数据,从《北京市统计年鉴》获取人口、收入、卷烟价格指数、居民消费价格指数。采用卷烟零售价格指数调整卷烟价格,描述各年份卷烟价格变化,使用购买100包卷烟所需的花费占收入的比重计算烟草可负担性。使用对数线性回归模型估算卷烟价格需求弹性系数。结果北京市卷烟名义价格和实际价格在2004-2017年间基本保持上涨,购买100包卷烟的花费占收入的比重整体呈下降趋势,烟草可负担性在近年来在提高。卷烟价格弹性系数为-0.42,表明价格每上涨10%,卷烟销量下降4.2%(t=-17.015, P<0.001)。结论北京市落实烟税改革状况较好,尽管卷烟价格上升,卷烟可负担性近年来却在提高。提高烟税需要达到一定比例,才可以降低卷烟可负担性,实现控制烟草消费的目的。非价格措施如公共场所全面禁烟也应得到推广。Objective To analyze the cigarette price,cigarette affordability and price elasticity coefficient of cigarette demand in Beijing from 2004 to 2017 under the context of tobacco control policies,so as to provide reference for the future policy development.Methods The data of cigarette sales and price of single box of cigarettes in Beijing were obtained from Beijing Tobacco Yearbook,and demographic data,income,cigarette price index and consumer price index were obtained from Beijing Statistical Yearbook.The tobacco retail price index was used to adjust the price of cigarettes,and the change of cigarette price was described from year to year.The cigarette affordability was calculated by using the proportion of the cost of purchasing 100 packs of cigarettes in per capita income.The logarithmic linear regression model was used to estimate the coefficient of price elasticity of cigarette demand.Results The nominal and actual price of cigarettes in Beijing basically kept rising from 2004 to 2017,and the proportion of the cost of buying 100 packs of cigarettes in income showed a downward trend,indicating that the cigarette affordability was increasing in recent years.Price elasticity coefficient of cigarette demand was-0.42,indicating that for every 10%increase in price,cigarette sales decreased by 4.2%(t=-17.015,P<0.001).Conclusion Beijing performs well in implementing cigarette tax reform,but the affordability of cigarettes is increasing in recent years despite price rising.Only by raising the cigarette tax to a certain proportion can the affordability of cigarettes be reduced and the purpose of tobacco consumption control be realized.Non-price measures such as comprehensive smoking ban in public places should also be promoted.

关 键 词：卷烟价格 卷烟可负担性 需求价格弹性 烟草控制 

分 类 号：R163[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F726[经济管理—产业经济]