“一带一路”倡议对中国与中东欧国家贸易影响及传导机制研究——基于双重差分模型的实证  

Research on the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries and its transmission mechanism--An empirical study based on difference-in-differences model

作　　者：燕春蓉[1] YAN Chun-rong(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Second Polytechnic University,Shanghai 201209)

机构地区：[1]上海第二工业大学经管学院,上海201209

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第6期41-51,共11页

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目“一带一路倡议下中国与中东欧的贸易潜力研究”(编号:17YJA790081);上海第二工业大学应用经济学科资助(编号:XXKPY1608)。

摘　　要：中东欧国家是“一带一路”倡议伙伴网络中非常重要的组成部分,是中国与欧洲各国贸易的桥头堡和重要纽带,“一带一路”倡议是加强中国与中东欧国家贸易联系的重要举措。基于2000—2017年94个国家的数据,用事件评估的有效识别方法——双重差分法深入研究“一带一路”倡议对中国与中东欧国家贸易的影响及影响的传导机制。研究发现:“一带一路”倡议对中国自中东欧国家进口贸易具有显著的积极作用,却对中国向中东欧国家出口贸易产生了显著的抑制作用。“一带一路”倡议可以显著地促进中国自中东欧沿海国家的进口贸易,降低中国与中东欧国家之间的投资自由度差异和贸易自由度差异,提高中东欧国家的人均GDP,进而对中国与中东欧国家贸易产生间接促进影响。为促进中国与中东欧国家贸易,应该充分发挥中国与中东欧国家的各自比较优势,扩大相互之间贸易,进一步完善“陆上丝绸之路”沿线基础设施建设,并根据中东欧国家各自特点适时调整进出口结构。Central and Eastern European countries are a very important part of the partner network of the Belt and Road Initiative,and a bridgehead and important link between China and European countries.The Belt and Road Initiative is an important measure to strengthen the trade ties between China and Central and Eastern European countries.Based on the data of 94 countries from 2000 to 2017,this paper used the difference-in-differences model,an effective identification method of event assessment,to deeply study the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries and the transmission mechanism of the impact.The results show that the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant positive effect on China’s import trade from Central and Eastern European countries,but it has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s export trade to Central and Eastern European countries.The Belt and Road Initiative can significantly promote China’s import trade from the coastal countries of Central and Eastern Europe,reduce the difference in investment freedom and trade freedom between China and Central and Eastern European countries,and increase the per capita GDP of Central and Eastern European countries,thus producing an indirect effect on the trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries.In order to promote trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries,we should make full use of their respective comparative advantages,expand mutual trade,further improve the infrastructure construction along the Silk Road,and timely adjust the import and export structure according to their respective characteristics.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 中东欧 贸易自由度 投资自由度 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]