莫迪政府的阿富汗战略:路径、动因与成效  

The Modi Government's Afghanistan Strategy:Paths,Motivations and Effectiveness

作　　者：张杰[1] 吴俊 Zhang Jie;Wu Jun

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学国际关系学院,陕西西安710128 [2]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心,云南昆明650021

出　　处：《新疆社会科学》2021年第3期78-90,167,共14页Social Sciences in Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘颜色革命’的发生、扩散与应对研究(2019-2021)”(19BGJ051);陕西省社科基金项目“陕西涉外智库的建设机制研究”(2019E006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：塔利班政权被推翻后,印度重启了印阿关系并实施了积极的对阿政策。莫迪政府上台以来,在多个领域进一步加强了与阿富汗的关系。具体表现为,在经济上注重把握阿富汗国情,实施精准援助;在安全上削弱阿富汗对巴基斯坦的依赖,推进印阿安全合作;在外交和文化上强调双轨并重,积极参与阿富汗重建进程。莫迪政府的阿富汗战略,既有牵制巴基斯坦和防止阿富汗局势动荡影响自身安全的政策惯性,也有利用阿富汗事务跻身世界大国行列和以阿富汗为跳板连通中亚与西亚的深层考量。尽管莫迪政府的阿富汗战略取得了一定成效,但仍存在战略定位不够明晰,功利色彩严重以及意愿与能力不相匹配等问题。随着美国政府正式决定从阿富汗全面撤军,“后美国时代”的阿富汗局势扑朔迷离。加之受新冠疫情的严重冲击,莫迪政府如何调配资源,维护印度在阿富汗的利益,将是其面临的挑战之一。Following the overthrow of the Taliban regime,India has revived Indo-Afghan relations and implemented an active policy towards Afghanistan.Since the Modi government came to power,it has further strengthened its relations with Afghanistan in a number of areas.As evidenced by its economic focus on grasping Afghanistan's situation and implementing precise assistance;its security focus on weakening Afghanistan's dependence on Pakistan and promoting Indo-Afghan security cooperation;and its diplomatic and cultural focus on the twin tracks and active participation in Afghanistan's reconstruction process.The Modi government's Afghanistan strategy is based on the policy inertia of keeping Pakistan in check and preventing the volatile situation in Afghanistan from affecting its own security,as well as the deeper consideration of using Afghanistan as a springboard to connect Central and West Asia.Although the Modi government's Afghanistan strategy has achieved some success,it still suffers from a lack of clarity in its strategic positioning,a serious utilitarian dimension and a mismatch between its will and its capabilities.With the Biden administration's formal decision to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan,the situation in Afghanistan in the"post-US era"is confusing.With the serious impact of the new epidemic,how the Modi government will deploy resources to safeguard India's interests in Afghanistan will be one of the challenges it faces.

关 键 词：莫迪政府 印阿关系 阿富汗战略 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]