全球失衡、重商主义与货币政策  

Global Imbalance,Mercantilism and Monetary Policy

作　　者：刘建建 王忏 吴立元 龚六堂[1] Liu Jianjian;Wang Chan;Wu Liyuan;Gong Liutang(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University;School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [2]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《经济科学》2021年第3期69-82,共14页Economic Science

基　　金：北京大学数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室、中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划资助、中央财经大学标志性科研成果培育项目的支持。

摘　　要：本文建立了一个包含重商主义的两国模型,从重商主义的角度解释了全球失衡的原因,分析其对消费、汇率、产出、贸易条件的短期和长期影响,并讨论了货币政策和关税政策对经济的影响。研究发现:(1)重商主义更强的国家(简称H国)在国际金融市场上积累资本,经常账户盈余;重商主义更弱的国家(简称F国)借贷资本,经常账户赤字。无论是短期还是长期,H国家庭户的消费都低于F国,H国货币贬值、相对产出更高、贸易条件恶化。(2)当H国发生正向货币供给冲击时,H国相对F国消费短期和长期都增加,货币短期贬值、长期变化方向不定,相对产出短期上升、长期降低,经常账户盈余增加,贸易条件短期恶化、长期改善。(3)H国关税提高对产出和经常账户盈余影响的方向不定。当H国经济规模相对较小时,H国相对消费短期和长期都下降,贸易条件长期恶化;当H国经济规模相对较大时,H国货币短期和长期都升值,贸易条件短期改善。This paper develops a two-country model incorporating mercantilism,explains the causes of global imbalance from a mercantilist perspective,analyzes its short-and long-term effects on consumption,exchange rate,output,and terms of trade,and discusses the effects of monetary and tariff policies on the economy.The research findings are as follows.(1)Countries with stronger mercantilism(Country H)accumulate capital in the international financial market and run current account surplus,while countries with weaker mercantilism(Country F)borrow capital and run current account deficit.Both in the short run and the long run,households in Country H consume less than those in Country F,and Country H has a depreciated currency,higher relative output,and deteriorating terms of trade.(2)When the positive money supply shock occurs in Country H,the consumption in Country H increases relative to Country F both in the short run and the long run.Meanwhile,the currency of Country H depreciates in the short run and the direction of long-term changes is uncertain;the relative output of Country H increases in the short run but decreases in the long run;the current account surplus in Country H in-creases;and the terms of trade in Country H deteriorate in the short run but improve in the long run.(3)The impact of the tariff increases in Country H on output and current account surplus is uncertain.When the size of Country H's economy is relatively small,its relative consumption decreases both in the short run and the long run;and its terms of trade deteriorate in the long run.When the size of Country H's economy is relatively large,its currency appreciates both in the short run and the long run;and its terms of trade improve in the short run.

关 键 词：全球失衡 重商主义 货币政策 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]