高质量发展背景下中国现代海洋产业体系时空分异及驱动机制研究  

Study on the Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of China′s Modern Marine Industry System Against the Background of High-quality Development

作　　者：王泽宇[1,2] 郭婷[1,2] WANG Zeyu;GUO Ting(Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education:Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社科重点研究基地,海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《海洋经济》2021年第1期19-29,共11页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目[41671119]。

摘　　要：现代海洋产业体系建设对加快现代化经济体系建设、实现海洋经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文采用熵权TOPSIS法定量测度2005—2016年中国沿海地区现代海洋产业体系发展水平,利用Kernel估计和ArcGIS空间分析技术探究现代海洋产业体系时间演化规律和空间分异特征,并采用GMM方法分析其影响因素。结论如下:(1)从时间演化来看,2005年沿海地区现代海洋产业体系发展整体集中在较低水平,2010年由"集中化"向"扁平化"趋势发展,2016年核密度曲线呈现双峰分布,但区域差异有所缩减。(2)从空间演化来看,现代海洋产业体系基本上形成"南北低-中间高"的空间分布特征。从沿海地区三大经济圈来看,长三角经济圈保持相对领先,珠三角经济圈基本保持稳定,环渤海经济圈相对弱化的圈层格局已经形成。(3)从影响因素来看,政府海洋财政支出影响系数为负,其他影响因素系数均为正。影响程度为人均可支配收入>海洋工业化水平>政府污染治理投资>海洋科研机构经常性费用>政府海洋财政支出。The construction of a modern marine industrial system is of great significance to speeding up the construction of modern economic system and realiing the high-quality development of marine economy. In this paper, entropy TOPSIS is used to measure the development level of modern marine industrial system in China′ s coastal provinces from2005 to 2016. Kernel estimation and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology are used to explore the temporal evolution law and spatial differentiation characteristics of modern marine industrial system, and GMM method is used to analyze its influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows:(1) From the perspective of time evolution, the overall development of modern marine industrial system in coastal areas was concentrated at a low level in 2005, and the trend was from "centralized" to "flat" in 2010. In 2016, the nuclear density curve showed a bimodal distribution, but the regional differences were somewhat reduced.(2) From the perspective of spatial evolution, the modern marine industrial system basically formed the spatial distribution characteristics of "low in the north and south-high in the middle". From the perspective of the three major economic circles in coastal areas, the Yangtze River Delta economic circle kept relatively leading,the Pearl River Delta economic circle basically remained stable, and the relatively weakened circle pattern of the Bohai Rim economic circle was formed.(3) From the perspective of influencing factors, the influence coefficient of government marine fiscal expenditure was negative, while the coefficients of other influencing factors were all positive. The influence degree was per capita disposable income > marine industrialization level > government investment in pollution control > recurrent expenses of marine scientific research institutions > government marine fiscal expenditure.

关 键 词：现代海洋产业体系 时空分异 影响因素 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]