基于事故树和模糊贝叶斯网络的铁路超限货物运输风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Railway Out-of-gauge Goods Transportation Based on Fault Tree and Fuzzy Bayesian Network

作　　者：韩梅[1] 吴珊 常青 陈超[1] 韩延慧[1] 黄艳春 HAN Mei;WU Shan;CHANG Qing;CHEN Chao;HAN Yanhui;HUANG Yanchun(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Branch,China Telecom Corporation Limited,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]中国电信股份有限公司北京分公司,北京100010

出　　处：《铁道学报》2021年第5期9-17,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1201402)

摘　　要：为量化铁路超限货物运输安全风险并识别薄弱环节,提出一种基于事故树和模糊贝叶斯网络的超限货物运输风险评估方法。在确定超限货物运输影响因素的基础上构建事故树,并将其映射为贝叶斯网络。根据模糊集理论标定底事件的条件概率,将底事件的模糊失效概率(FFR)作为贝叶斯网络中根节点的先验概率。通过在仿真软件中利用贝叶斯网络建立铁路超限货物运输风险评估模型进行双向推理,获得叶节点发生概率与根节点的后验概率,定量分析各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度。结果表明,建筑限界管理与线路质量是铁路超限货物运输安全风险的关键事件,加强限界管理及改善线路质量对铁路超限货物运输安全风险控制具有显著作用。In order to quantify safety risks and identify the weak links in railway out-of-gauge goods transportation,a risk assessment method for out-of-gauge goods transportation based on fault tree and fuzzy Bayesian network was proposed.In this paper,a fault tree was constructed on the basis of determining the influencing factors of out-of-gauge goods transportation,and was mapped to a Bayesian network.Then,according to the fuzzy set theory,the conditional probability of the bottom event was calibrated,and the fuzzy failure probability(FFR)of the bottom event was taken as the prior probability of the root node in the Bayesian network.The out-of-gauge goods risk evaluation model was set up to carry on the positive and reverse reasoning by using Bayesian networks in the simulation software,to obtain leaf nodes probability and the posterior probability of the root node,and to make quantitative analysis of the structure importance of the basic events,probability importance degree and key importance.The analysis results show that the structure gauge management and the railway quality are the key events that cause the risks of railway out-of-gauge goods transportation.Strengthening the management of structure gauge and improving railway quality have a significant effect on the safety risk control of railway out-of-gauge goods transportation.

关 键 词：超限货物运输 影响因素分析 贝叶斯网络 模糊理论 风险评估 

分 类 号：U294.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]