政府跨期预算决策过程分析——基于时间偏好动态一致性的研究  

Intertemporal Decision-making Process of Government Budget:A Study Based on Dynamic Consistency of Time Preference

作　　者：张莉 ZHANG Li

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2021年第6期16-26,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中期视角下推进预算领域国家治理体系和治理能力现代化”(项目编号:20CJY05)。

摘　　要：随着跨年度预算平衡机制和中期财政规划两个议题的提出,政府预算的跨期决策问题在中国已经成为越来越具有现实意义的研究命题。根据爱伦·鲁宾的实时预算决策模型,可以将政府的跨期预算决策分解为五个相互独立且相互关联的决策束,分别为收入束、支出束、过程束、平衡束和执行束。其中,过程束发挥组织其他各决策束并进行权力分配的作用。笔者采用行为经济学的研究方法,重点分析政府跨期预算决策的过程束。首先选取双曲贴现模型分析跨期预算决策的自我约束问题,进而从心理层面基于双自我模型分析跨期预算决策过程。通过模型分析得出结论:跨期预算决策机制有助于改善决策者时间偏好动态不一致的问题。在此基础上,结合中国现实,本文提出充分发挥中期财政规划的管理功能、强调中期财政纪律、完善具体的跨期预算决策技术及制度安排等相关政策建议。As the multi-year budget-balancing mechanism and medium-term fiscal plan are introduced,the intertemporal decision-making issues of government budget are getting more and more important in China.Based on the model of Real-time Budgeting introduced by Irene Rubin,we can divide the intertemporal decision-making of government budget into five decision clusters——the revenue cluster,the expenditure cluster,the process cluster,the balance cluster and the implementation cluster.The process cluster organizes all the other decision clusters and distributes their power.Using the method of behavioral economics,this paper mainly researches on the process cluster of intertemporal budgetary decision-making.First,we study the hyperbolic discounting model and analyze the self-control problem of intertemporal budgetary decisionmaking.Then,we use the dual-self model in psychology to study the process of the intertemporal budgetary decision-making.Based on the previous models,this paper comes to the conclusion-the intertemporal decision-making mechanism of budget can improve the dynamic consistency of time preference for decision makers.At last,based on China's reality,policy suggestions are made such as emphasizing the managerial function of medium-term fiscal planning and medium-term fiscal discipline,improving detailed techniques and systems.

关 键 词：跨期预算决策 实时预算模型 中期财政规划 双曲贴现模型 双自我模型 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]