城市群视角下新冠肺炎疫情的时空扩散特征与影响因素  

Spatiotemporal Diffusion Characteristics and Influencing Factors of COVID-19 Epidemic from the Perspective of Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：曹永旺 刘樱[1,2] 周春山 CAO Yongwang;LIU Ying;ZHOU Chunshan(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510275 [2]中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2021年第3期1-7,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BRK010)。

摘　　要：采用各省份卫健委每日通报疫情数据,结合空间自相关、地理探测器等方法,从城市群视角分析2020年1月21日至6月30日新冠肺炎疫情在中国内地的时空扩散特征与影响因素。结果表明:(1)新冠肺炎疫情的扩散可划分为4个阶段,空间上呈现出圈层结构特征;具有显著正空间集聚特征,且空间集聚格局相对稳定。(2)城市群内是疫情扩散的主要场所,但变异系数在快速下降。累计确诊病例与城市群发育度具有正相关性。城市群内累计确诊病例的空间分布模式划分为弱中心城市群、弱单中心城市群、强单中心城市群、强多中心城市群4种类型。(3)城市群内累计确诊病例与经济发展水平、医疗卫生水平、人口规模、交通联系强度、对外经济贸易水平均存在显著的正相关性,其中医生数对累计确诊病例的空间分布解释力最强;影响因素两两交互的解释力要高于单因素的解释力。The spatiotemporal diffusion characteristics and influencing factors of COVID-19 epidemic in China were analyzed systematically from the perspective of urban agglomeration from January 21 to June 30 in 2020 year,using the methods of spatial autocorrelation,geographical detector,and so on.The data of epidemic number was offered by Provincial Health Committee.The results are shown in the following:①the spreading process of COVID-19 epidemic in China mainly experienced four stages,namely,stageⅠ:rapid rise;stageⅡ:fast fall;stageⅢ:stable maintenance and stageⅣ:small growth.Besides,cumulative number of diagnosis of COVID-19 epidemic has shown spatial circle structure,and significant positive spatial agglomeration characteristics.②As the main place for spreading of COVID-19 epidemic,the urban agglomeration have showed rapidly decreasing trend of coefficient of variation.The scale of cumulative number of diagnosis of COVID-19 has shown positive correlation with the development level of urban agglomeration.In addition,the spatial distribution pattern of cumulative number of diagnosis in urban agglomeration can be divided into four types,namely,typeⅠ:weak central urban agglomeration,typeⅡ:weak single center urban agglomeration,typeⅢ:strong single center urban agglomeration and typeⅣ:strong multi center urban agglomeration.③The study found that economic development ability,medical and health care ability,population size,traffic connection strength and foreign economic and trade level have significant positive correlation on the spatial diffusion scale of COVID-19.The number of doctors has the strongest explanatory power on the spatial distribution of the cumulative number of diagnosis.Besides,the explanatory power of influencing factors is higher in mutual factor than single factor.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 时空扩散 地理探测器 城市群 中国 

分 类 号：K928.5[历史地理—人文地理学]