不同政策方案下的南京市土地利用碳排放动态模拟  

Dynamic Simulation of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in Nanjing City under Different Policy Scenarios

作　　者：杨皓然 吴群[2] YANG Haoran;WU Qun(School of Law and Political Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China;Realty Research Center, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学法政学院,南京211816 [2]南京农业大学不动产研究中心,南京210095

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2021年第3期121-126,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(重点)项目(71233004)。

摘　　要：通过系统动力学方法,对2000—2035年南京市土地利用碳排放现状及未来政策模拟趋势下的碳排放趋势进行动态模拟。结果表明:当前南京市土地利用碳排放总量保持持续增长趋势,一定的政策干预可以调控碳排放量;调整城镇化水平可以抑制土地利用碳排放的增速;减少建设用地占用耕地,调整产业结构和汽车使用量,均可有效控制碳排放量的增长;单纯通过调整环境污染治理投资对调控土地利用碳排放并不显著;多种政策协调控制下的碳减排水平远高于单一政策调整。Based on the system dynamics method,the current situation of land use carbon emission in Nanjing City from 2000 to 2035 and the carbon emission trend under the future policy simulation trend were simulated dynamically.The results show that the total carbon emissions from land use in Nanjing City maintain a trend of continuous growth,and certain policy interventions can regulate the carbon emissions.Adjusting the urbanization level can restrain the growth rate of carbon emissions from land use.Reducing the use of cultivated land for construction,adjusting the industrial structure and the use of automobiles can effectively control the growth of carbon emissions.It is not significant to regulate land use carbon emissions simply by adjusting the investment in environmental pollution control.The level of carbon emission reduction under the coordination of multiple policies is much higher than that under a single policy adjustment.

关 键 词：城镇化 土地利用 碳排放 系统动力学 政策仿真 南京市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]