高等教育人力资本集聚对产业结构升级的非线性影响--基于中国287个地级及以上城市面板数据的实证分析  

The Nonlinear Impacts of Higher Education Human Capital Agglomeration on Industrial Structure Upgrading:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 287 Cities at and Above the Prefecture Level in China

作　　者：周启良[1] 范红忠[2] ZHOU Qiliang;FAN Hongzhong(School of International Business,Jiangxi College of Foreign Studies,Nanchang 330099,China;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]江西外语外贸职业学院国际商务学院,南昌330099 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《重庆高教研究》2021年第4期43-58,共16页Chongqing Higher Education Research

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目“细分行业视角下的高职院校专业设置与产业对接研究——以南昌地区为例”(JY161015);江西省教育科学“十四五”规划课题“江西省高等教育结构-产业结构耦合度对毕业生留赣就业结构的影响研究”(21YB343)。

摘　　要：高等教育人力资本集聚主要通过改变要素丰裕程度和自主创新能力两种途径提高生产率,从而影响产业结构升级。运用两步系统GMM模型对1999—2017年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据进行实证检验,目的是深入探究高等教育人力资本集聚与产业结构升级两者之间关系在不同规模城市之间的差异。结果发现:(1)高等教育人力资本集聚对产业结构升级的影响因城市规模不同而差异显著,两者之间并非呈简单的正向线性关系;(2)从总体差异来看,高等教育人力资本集聚对小型、中型和大型城市的产业结构升级的影响均显著为正,且这种正向影响在中型城市达到最大而在大型城市趋于下降,对特大型城市的产业结构升级的影响为负;(3)从地区差异来看,与中西部地区城市相比,高等教育人力资本集聚对产业结构升级所产生的正向影响及其升降幅度或负向影响在东部地区城市表现得更为突出。建议政府做好城市发展定位,稳定高校毕业生就业,合理化布局高等教育资源等,最大限度地助益高等教育人力资本集聚和促进产业结构升级。The higher education human capital agglomeration affects the industrial structure upgrading through improving productivity by changing the abundance of factor endowment and the ability of independent innovation.In order to further explore the different relationships between the higher education human capital agglomeration and the industrial structure upgrading in different scale cities,an empirical analysis was made by using the two-step System GMM model which based on the panel data of 287 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 1999 to 2017.The results show that:the impact of higher education human capital agglomeration on industrial structure upgrading is significant different with the city scale,and the two are not in a simple positive linear relationship;from the perspective of overall difference,the impact of higher education human capital agglomeration on industrial structure upgrading is significantly positive in small,medium-sized and large cities,and the positive impact is the largest in medium-sized cities and tends to decline in large cities,but it turns negative impact in super-large cities;from the perspective of regional differences,compared with the cities in the central and western regions,the positive impact and the extent of its rising and reduction of higher education human capital agglomeration on industrial structure upgrading are more prominent in eastern cities.Therefore,the Chinese government should take measures such as positioning urban development,stabilizing the employment of college graduates,rationalizing the distribution of higher education resources,so as to maximize the benefits of higher education human capital agglomeration and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：高等教育人力资本集聚 城市规模 拥挤效应 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：G646[文化科学—高等教育学]