全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势及严重程度  

Analysis of the development trend and severity of the COVID-19 panidemic in the global world

作　　者：黄冰 王洪源[1] HUANG Bing;WANG Hong-yuan(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,北京100191

出　　处：《北京大学学报（医学版）》2021年第3期536-542,共7页Journal of Peking University:Health Sciences

基　　金：北京大学抗疫专项(PKU2020PKYZX002)。

摘　　要：目的:分析近期各国/地区新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情发展趋势及严重程度。方法:收集截止2021年1月16日各国/地区新冠肺炎疫情数据,回顾性描述疫情规模及整体走势;结合近期新增确诊病例变化趋势、1月10日至16日(第54周)新增确诊病例数、发病密度等指标对疫情严重程度进行分类。结果:截止2021年1月16日,全球累计确诊病例92510419例;第54周新增确诊病例4849301例,且仍处于增长状态。从大洲层面看,欧洲、北美洲、亚洲累积确诊病例数超过2100万例;北美洲、南美洲、亚洲单周新增确诊病例数处于增加状态。从国家/地区层面看,美国、印度、巴西等18个国家/地区累计确诊病例数在100万例以上,占全球累积确诊病例数总数的77.04%。美国、巴西、法国、西班牙、哥伦比亚、英国、俄罗斯、德国、南非、意大利和印度11个国家/地区疫情风险较高,其中美国、巴西、法国、西班牙、哥伦比亚5国新增确诊病例仍处于增加状态,疫情风险更大。截止2021年2月,全球已经有11款疫苗上市,但依旧面临着全球疫苗不足和疫苗分配公平性等方面的问题。结论:截止2021年1月16日,全球新冠肺炎疫情仍在恶化,多国疫情反复,未得到根本的控制。从各大洲层面看,北美洲、南美洲和欧洲疫情最为严重;从国家/地区层面看,美国、巴西、法国、西班牙、哥伦比亚等国家/地区疫情风险较大。Objective:To analyze the recent severity of COVID-19 in various countries.Methods:Data were ollected on the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in various countries as of January 16,2021,and the scale and overall trend of the epidemic were retrospectively described;combined with the recent trend of newly confirmed cases,from January 10 to 16(the 54th week)and the newly confirmed cases indexes,such as the number and incidence density the severity of the epidemic was classified.Feasible suggestions were put forward based on the variation of the virus,actual data of vaccine research and development and possible existence in many countries.Results:Up to January 16,2021,there were 92510419 confirmed cases worldwide;4849301 new confirmed cases were confirmed in the 54th week,and they were still growing.Among all the continents,the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Europe,North America,and Asia has exceeded 21 million,and the number of new confirmed cases in a single week in North America,South America and Asia were all increasing.Among the countries,the cumulative number of confirmed cases in 18 countries including the United States,India,and Brazil was more than 1 million,accounting for 77.04%of the total number of cumulative confirmed cases in the world.Eleven countries including the United States,Brazil,France,Spain,Colombia,The United Kingdom,Russia,Germany,South Africa,Italy,and India are at higher risk of the epidemic;The United States,Brazil,France,Spain,and Colombia were still experiencing new confirmed cases and increasing status,the risk of the epidemic was greater.Novel coronavirus mutates frequently,up to February 2021,there had been 3931 mutant genotypes in the world.At the same time,a total of 11 vaccines were successfully launched,however we were still facing some troubles,such as the global shortage of vaccines,the public’s willingness to vaccinate needed to be improved,and equity in the distribution of vaccines.Conclusion:The global epidemic situation is still getting worse,with repeated epidemics i

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 全球 发展趋势 严重程度 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]