基于SEM-BN模型的核电厂操纵员行为形成因子优化  

Optimization of Performance Shaping Factor of Nuclear Power Plant Operators Based on SEM-BN Model

作　　者：孙倩琳 张力[1,2] 沈平 邹衍华[2] 刘建桥 陈帅 SUN Qian-lin;ZHANG Li;SHEN Ping;ZOU Yan-hua;LIU Jian-qiao;CHEN Shuai(School of Economic Management and Law,University of south China,Hengyang 421001,China;Institute of Human Factors Engineering and Safety Management,Hunan Institute of Technology,Hengyang 421002,China;CNNC Xiapu Nuclear Power Co.,Ltd.,Ningde 352100,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学核科学技术学院,湖南衡阳421001 [2]湖南工学院人因与安全工程研究院,湖南衡阳421002 [3]中核霞浦核电有限公司,福建宁德352100

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第10期151-159,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:功率持续快速变化下核电厂操纵员人因可靠性分析方法研究(71771084);湖南省自然科学基金:核电厂先进主控室动态人因可靠性分析方法研究(2020JJ4016);湖南省教育厅科研基金:严重事故背景下的核电厂人因可靠性分析方法研究(18A424)。

摘　　要：认知可靠性与人误分析法(CREAM)的共同绩效条件(CPC)的定义相对模糊且具有重合性,在实际工程应用预测失误率时主要依赖专家主观判断,不确定性强.为了改善这一问题,结合WANO(世界核电厂运营者协会)根原因体系提出对CPC的改进方法,改进后的CPC体系经结构方程模型验证证明是合理可行的,优于原体系.基于新的CPC体系,采用结构方程模型和贝叶斯网络相结合的方法进一步建立了核电厂人因失误概率计算模型.Common Performance Condition(CPC) of CREAM are relatively vague and coincident.Factor level are mainly depend on the subjective judgment of experts and have strong uncertainty when predicting the error rate in practical engineering.In order to improve this problem,an improved method of CPC is proposed based on WANO(World Association of Nuclear Power Plant Operators) root cause system,the improved CPC system is proved to be reasonable and peasible by Structural Equation Modeling,It’s superior to CPC system,Based on the improved CPC system,a model for calculating human error probability of nuclear power plants is established by combining Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian network.

关 键 词：核电厂 共同绩效条件 结构方程模型 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：TM623[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]